Check Ball

Dwayne Wade and more

2009-04-28T18:08:00.000-07:00

21-5-7-31-31-3 ... the number of games missed by Dwayne Wade in each of his six NBA seasons. The verdict? When Wade is healthy, he's one of the game's best and capable of leading his team to a championship (2006). Problem is, he's injured again -- this time after he turned in his most productive season, one in which he also set career-highs in games (79) and minutes played (3,048). And after the Hawks evened the first-round series against Wade's Heat on Monday night, does Wade have enough to get Miami two wins in the final three games of the series (two on the road)? Not likely. And more important, will Wade's career ultimately be defined by the games he missed more than the ones he played.

Given that Chris Paul is under contract with the Hornets for at least three more years (player option for 2013), it's probably time for New Orleans to replace Byron Scott with a coach to take the Hornets to the next level. Scott is about to finish his fifth season with the team (if the Nuggets close out the series in Game 5) and it's win totals of 18-38-39-56-49, includes last year's trip to the playoffs that ended in a trip to the Western semifinals. However, despite this season's step backward that was primarily the result of injuries to Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic, it seems the Hornets are in need of a new voice from the bench. And when evaluating coaching candidates, they better find one that connects with Paul.

Anyone else think Jerry Sloan's tirade and subsequent ejection in the closing minutes of Utah's series-ending loss to the Lakers on Tuesday had more to do with his disgust for his team's lack of effort for five games than his disagreement with a handful of calls down the stretch?

The Lakers are heavy favorites to get out of the West, but I'm not sure they're favorites anymore to defeat the Cavs. LA has five weeks and two more series to get sharper, but their lapses, especially at the defensive end, after racing out to big leads are a concern. The Lakers can be so dynamic on offense, but Cleveland right now is at the top of its game: No. 1 in FG defense, No. 1 in 3-point FG defense. The Cavs were efficient offensively throughout the regular season, but their title hopes hinge on getting enough offense to outscore the Lakers.

Hard to believe, but the Rockets have become much more likable. Yes, even with Ron Artest. Without Tracy McGrady, Houston has a new identity: lunch pails and hard hats. Artest, Yao Ming, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, etc.

Quick thoughts

2009-04-21T20:06:00.000-07:00

The Lakers' offense is so efficient, as evidenced by a remarkable first quarter in Game 2 against the Jazz. Los Angeles scored 41 points on 18-for-21 shooting (86 percent), tallied 14 assists on those 18 baskets, and led by 12 after 12 minutes. The Lakers are simply toying with Utah, scoring easily, even without a lot of points or shot attempts by Kobe Bryant. The biggest problem for Los Angeles? Complacency and wavering focus, in light of such big leads. Still, don't expect the Lakers to face a defense that can slow them until a Finals matchup against the Cavs or Celtics.

After Tony Parker shredded the Mavs for 38 points in the Spurs' Game 2 victory, Dallas center Erick Dampier said that his first foul (in Game 3) is going to put Parker on his back. "I guarantee it," Dampier told The Dallas Morning News. The effectiveness of that mind-set and/or tactic is questionable, but making it known? Not smart. And now word comes down that the NBA is further reviewing Dampier's comments. Problem is, for the strategy to work, Parker has to be susceptible to shying away from contact when hit early and often. And that hasn't been the case. My advice to Parker: Be even more aggressive.

Cleveland's Mike Brown was voted Coach of the Year. It was a well-deserved honor for Brown. The Cavs were a league-best 66-16 and are a strong contender to win an NBA title. Of course, league MVP LeBron James is the reason why. But the only measure of a coach that matters is if he maximized his team's performance, which Brown certainly did. He incorporated new point guard Mo Williams into his system, and took a cue from Gregg Popovich's playbook in developing consistent roles for every player on the roster. The Cavs are dialed in, and if they don't win a title this year, it will be because they aren't quite good enough, not because they underachieved.

Too much hospitality

2009-04-20T21:17:00.000-07:00

In losing 108-81 to Houston in Game 1 on Saturday, Portland became just the second team in NBA history to lose by more than 25 points on its home floor in the opening game of a playoff series.

The other? Phoenix lost at home to Utah, 129-90, in Game 1 of a first-round Western Conference series in 1991. In the smallest of sample sizes, the 2009 Blazers can take the smallest amount of solace ... Phoenix bounced back to win Game 2 at home, 102-93, before losing a pair of games in Utah to drop the series, 3-1.

The Suns' reaction back then:

Coach Cotton Fitzsimmons: "It's a sad commentary I really have no explanation on why our team looked so poorly."

Jeff Hornacek: "We were just flat. It was just one of those nights. Things started out bad and continued that way."

Kevin Johnson: "Our concentration broke down. I think that we played excited, but we didn't hustle and there is no excuse for that."

Portland's reaction after Game 1:

Coach Nate McMillan: "It's a bad night. We lost."

Joel Przybilla: "I think it's disappointing that we didn't come out to play from the start. There's no reason why we shouldn't have come out with the same intensity."

A common thread is the lack of intensity. Veteran players often talk about how much more intense the playoffs are compared to the regular season, and how there is no way players facing their first postseason game can accurately anticipate such a jump.

The young Blazers certainly appeared overwhelmed in their opener. Can they bounce back in Game 2? And even if they do, are they ready to win the series? Or are they not yet ready, as analyst Jeff Van Gundy claims?

Playoff series records by team

2009-04-18T21:02:00.000-07:00

Playoff series records (2003-08)
West
Team, Overall, With H/C, Without H/C
Blazers ------ 0-1 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-1
Clippers ----- 1-1 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-1
Grizzlies ----- 0-3 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-3
Hornets ----- 1-3 ------1-1------0-3
Jazz ---------- 3-3 ----- 1-0 ----- 2-3
Kings -------- 2-4 ----- 2-0 ----- 0-4
Lakers ------- 7-5 ----- 4-1 ----- 3-4
Mavs --------- 6-6 ----- 5-2 ----- 1-4
Nuggets ----- 0-5 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-5
Rockets ----- 0-4 ----- 0-2 ----- 0-2
Sonics ------- 1-1 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-1
Spurs ------- 16-3 ---- 13-2 ----- 3-1
Suns ---------- 5-5 ----- 5-2 ----- 0-3
T'wolves ------ 2-2 ----- 2-2 ----- 0-0
Warriors ----- 1-1 ----- 0-0 ----- 1-1

East
Team, Overall, With H/C, Without H/C
Bucks ------- 0-3 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-3
Bulls --------- 1-3 ----- 1-1 ----- 0-2
Cavs -------- 5-3 ----- 4-0 ----- 1-3
Celtics ------ 5-3 ----- 4-1 ----- 1-2
Hawks ------ 0-1 ------0-0 -----0-1
Heat --------- 7-3 ----- 5-1 ----- 2-2
Magic ------- 1-3 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-3
Nets --------- 6-6 ----- 4-0 ----- 2-6
Pacers ------ 3-4 ----- 2-2 ----- 1-2
Pistons ----- 15-5 ---- 12-3 ---- 3-2
Raptors ----- 0-2 ----- 0-1 ----- 0-1
76ers -------- 1-3 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-3
Wizards ----- 1-4 ----- 0-0 ----- 1-4

Playoff records by seed

2009-04-18T20:56:00.000-07:00

Since the NBA went to the 16-team playoff format in 1984 ...

No. 1 vs. No. 8: 47-3 (1994 Nuggets d. Sonics; 1999 Knicks d. Heat; 2008 Warriors d. Mavs)

No. 2 vs. No. 7: 46-4 (1987 Sonics d. Mavs; 1989 Warriors d. Jazz; 1991 Warriors d. Spurs; 1998 Knicks d. Heat)

No. 3 vs. No. 6: 36-14

No. 4 vs. No. 5: 25-25

Spurs-Mavs -- Game 1 thread

2009-04-18T17:12:00.000-07:00

Mavs win, 105-97.

Thoughts on Game 1 ...

* Rick Carlisle is a big improvement.

* The Spurs' new supporting cast needs get in playoff mode in a hurry.

* JJ Barea just might the biggest difference-maker in this series: 13 points, 3 assists, game-best +17, 0 turnovers in 26 minutes.

Nowitzki 2 in a row. Mavs, 99-89.

Mason for 3. Spurs within 7, 95-88.

Dampier tip-in. Mavs, 95-83.

Barea runner. Mavs, 93-83.

Barea 3-point play. Mavs, 91-83.

Spurs led league in defensive rebound percentage, but have been hurt by key rebounds in the second half tonight.

Wonder if rookie George Hill will get playing time to slow Barea.

In addition to his offense and strong +/-, Barea is playing down the stretch ahead of Kidd, and just drew a second offensive foul on Parker.

Duncan 3-point play. Spurs within 3, 86-83.

Wright for 3. Mavs, 86-80.

Parker for 3. Spurs down 1, 81-80.

Barea currently +11 for the game.

Barea against the clock. Mavs, 81-77.

Wright a tough 3-point play. Mavs, 79-77.

Mason for 3 to the serenade of Welcome to the Jungle. Spurs, 77-74.

No coach dislikes the end-quarter interviews more than Popovich.

End of three quarters. 74-all.

Duncan again off glass, 9-0 run. 72-all.

Duncan two in a row, Mason a 3. Spurs within 2, 72-70.

Duncan is a legend, but he complains way too much about non-calls.

Mavs shooting better than 70 percent in the third, lead, 72-63.

Howard 2-for-2 at the line. Mavs, 70-63.

Spurs suffering numerous breakdowns at the defensive end. Bonner could not play a worse game.

Howard for 3. Mavs, 64-61.

Howard is on fire: eight in the quarter, 20 in the game. Mavs, 57-54.

Nowitzki from the baseline. Mavs, 51-49.

Howard and Barea score to open the half. 49-all.

Spurs should be a little concerned ... They shot 49 percent, only had two turnovers, and held Nowitzki to five points in just 14 minutes, yet only lead by four.

Howard six in a row for the Mavs, who trail at the break, 49-45.

Terry a deep 3 from the top. Mavs back within 6, 45-39.

Spurs are the best at closing out shooters and running them off the 3-point line.

Gooden over Kidd in the post. Spurs, 39-26.

Nowitzki picks up his third foul with 8:28 to go in second quarter and Mavs down 33-24.

Gooden inside. Spurs, 33-24.

No scoring on the floor for the Spurs, whose drought reaches 2:18.

Mason deep 3 to close the quarter. Spurs, 29-18.

Udoka drives for 2. Spurs, 26-16.

Corner 3 by Bowen. Spurs, 24-16.

Not sure why teams help on Kidd's drive anymore. Make him finish at the rim.

Parker drives for 2. Spurs, 18-13.

Parker drives for 2. Spurs, 16-13.

I know it's early, but hard to imagine the Spurs won't get any shot they want the entire series against the Mavs defense. Spurs, 14-10.

Parker missing early, but five trips inside the paint in the first 4:30. Spurs, 11-7.

West First Round Predictions

2009-04-18T13:17:00.000-07:00

Lakers (1) vs. Jazz (8)
Los Angeles won 65 games, is motivated by last year's Finals loss, and healthier/deeper than a year ago with defensive stopper Trevor Ariza and the recent return of center Andrew Bynum. The Lakers ranked third in offensive rating and their defensive numbers are also improved. Couple all of that with an opponent who offers little resistance and just listened to the fatalistic outlook of coach Jerry Sloan. Utah's home crowd might be worth one victory in the series this year (not two). The Jazz's only hope is for Deron Williams to play with a killer, almost selfish, instinct from tip to buzzer every night. Lakers in 5

Nuggets (2) vs. Hornets (7)
New Orleans' depth has always been an issue, which means the starters have to be healthy and on top of their games. That's not the case right now. Tyson Chandler returns from injury, but Peja Stojakovic has not been effective of late. The Hornets will go as far as David West and primarily Chris Paul will carry them -- and Paul is capable of winning a series by himself. But the Nuggets, thanks to the addition of Chauncey Billups and better offensive (No. 5 FG percentage) and defensive (No. 4) balance, are poised to win their first playoff series since stunning top-seeded Seattle 1994. Nuggets in 6

Spurs (3) vs. Mavs (6)
Without Manu Ginobili, San Antonio's odd-year run of championships will most certainly come to an end, but don't count out the Spurs from making some noise. It's a proud group, with a ton of playoff mettle and still very confident and comfortable with what it does best. The offense is now being carried by point guard Tony Parker, who ranked fourth in the NBA in usage (31.7). Parker also hit the Mavs for 22-29-37-37 in four regular season meetings. The Mavs, on the other hand, landed a familiar foe and one they conquered in their greatest playoff triumph (a Game 7 win in San Antonio in 2006). It's going the distance again, but Parker is the difference. Spurs in 7

Blazers (4) vs. Rockets (5)
Portland's late-season flourish -- 10 wins in 11 games, including 4-1 vs. playoff teams -- is no fluke. The Blazers led the NBA in offensive rating and offensive rebounding and were No. 4 in 3-point shooting. They have a rising star in Brandon Roy, are a popular pick to challenge the Lakers, and their home court at the Rose Garden could resemble Oracle Arena during Golden State's upset of top-seeded Dallas in 2007. However ... the Rockets, who were a Roy buzzer-beater away from a season-sweep of Portland, have the size (Yao Ming) and the defensive stoppers (Shane Battier and Ron Artest) to get it done. Rockets in 6

East First Round Predictions

2009-04-17T17:43:00.000-07:00

Cavs (1) vs. Pistons (8)
Two teams heading in opposite directions: Cleveland is poised to win a title; Detroit's run of six consecutive seasons of at least reaching the conference finals is about to end. All signs, and rightfully so, point to a sweep. Cleveland hit a significant milestone with 66 victories and did it efficiently at both ends of the court (No. 4 in offensive rating, No. 3 in defensive rating). Only remote chance Detroit has is to grind it out, play every game in the 70s and 80s. And with both teams among the most deliberate in the league (Cavs were 25th in pace factor; Pistons were 29th), it's possible, sort of. Cavs in 4

Celtics (2) vs. Bulls (7)
Last season Boston won 66 games, was hungry, and expected to roll to the NBA Finals. Instead, the upstart Hawks pushed all the way to a seventh game before being brushed aside. This time around, the Celtics have a title in their pocket (it's tougher to defend), are banged up, and face a first-round foe (led by rookie point guard Derrick Rose) that very much resembles the young, dynamic Hawks of a year ago. If Boston prevails, it will be because of these defensive numbers (No. 2 in FG percentage, No. 5 in 3-point percentage, No. 2 overall rating), some pride, and the toughness of Paul Pierce. Celtics in 7

Magic (3) vs. 76ers (6)
Orlando isn't at full-strength, but this team has sailed under the Cavs-Lakers radar most of the season. Still, 59 victories is no small feat. And the Magic did it with defense, even though that's not their reputation. No. 1 in FG percentage defense, No. 2 defending the 3, and No. 1 overall rating. Quite impressive. Dwight Howard should reign supreme inside and a couple of 20-20 games could be on the way. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, its two strengths -- offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers -- will be negated by the NBA's No. 2 team on the defensive backboards. Magic in 5

Hawks (4) vs. Heat (5)
One of the most evenly matched first-round series, although the winner is highly unlikely to leave a mark on the Cavs. And while Atlanta arrived a bit last season by pushing the Celtics to seven games, the Hawks lost the four games in Boston by an average of 25 points. That means there is significant pressure on Atlanta to win the first two at home and avoid a must-win in the white-out AmericanAirlines Arena. And yes, Dwyane Wade is capable of winning another series by himself. But the slightest of edges goes to the Hawks because of point guard Mike Bibby and a stronger inside game. Hawks in 7

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 6 thread

2008-06-17T17:53:00.000-07:00

Final, 131-92. Celtics were just awesome all season: 66 wins, a couple of hiccups in the early rounds, but consistent, punishing defense, throughout the Finals and a beautiful togetherness. Doc Rivers made some questionable strategic moves, but he did an amazing job of meshing all of these new pieces together into a championship team. The Celtics played so hard all year. Well deserved.

This one was over in the first quarter. Celtics pouring it on now, 101-70.

Ray Allen is one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history. Somebody might want to guard him ... still waiting ... how about now? No? Allen spins the ball, reads the laces, cradles it, rocks it to sleep, then drains a 3.

Boston is looking to run more now than at any time in this series. The Celtics clearly get it: run more with the lead, keep the pressure on.

Allen for 3. Celtics, 63-36. Radmanovic could care less who wins this game.

Rondo opens the second half with a jumper. Everything going Boston's way. Celtics, 60-35.

Halftime: Celtics, 58-35. Lakers are 8-for-27 from the field with 11 turnovers and -12 on the boards. Ouch.

Perkins denies Odom, then scores over him at the other end. Celtics, 58-35.

Garnett hangs, is mugged, and scores off the glass, and 1. Celtics, 56-35.

Kobe just turned it over. Lakers are about to crack.

Great ball movement by Boston. Rondo in the lane. Celtics, 51-35.

Garnett again. Celtics, 51-35.

By all statistical measures, the Celtics are one of the greatest defensive teams of all-time. Just how good? Well, the Lakers' offense clicked for three rounds: against Denver, Utah and San Antonio, also one of the league's best defensive teams. So, maybe the Lakers' struggles in this series are due only to Boston's greatness. That said, LA could use another guy who could create his own shot from the perimeter. Bynum's return will help with rebounding and interior defense, but the Lakers don't have another player on their roster who can attack the rim.

Radmanovic just fouled on a dead ball, 25 feet from the basket. Over/under on Radmanovic brain cells: 1.3. I'll take the under.

Radmanovic just chipped paint on that 3-point attempt.

Gasol almost threw away his 23rd outlet pass this postseason.

Kobe just got ripped by Posey, which leads to a Posey 3. Celtics, 43-29. 11-0 run.

The Lakers aren't close to matching the Celtics' force. Another foul on Fisher. House with two from the line. Boston, 40-29.

Is this 1984 all over again? Boston is winning this game with energy and aggression: 20-12 on the boards (including 8-0 on the offensive end), seven steals.

House for 3. Celtics, 38-29. Terrible defensive organization by the Lakers, who aren't locating shooters, rotate for no reason, rotate for the wrong reason. Ugh.

Two more offensive rebounds on the same possession, which lead to Posey's 3. Celtics, 35-29.

Kobe is forcing 3s again. The Lakers can't get anyone else going offensively, which means the Celtics should shade even more defenders onto Kobe and not give him any even semi-open looks. Celtics, 31-26.

Danger time for LA. Celtics lead, 29-24, and the game is getting very physical. Advantage Boston.

Celtics have just the right emotional pitch to start.

Celtics lead after one, 24-20. Kobe is 4-for-7; other Lakers are 1-for-7. LA also has six turnovers (four by Gasol). For Boston, meanwhile, Garnett is 5-for-7, but Pierce is 1-for-6.

Celtics swarming the boards with two and three guys going up for every missed shot by the Lakers.

Farmar has to pass that to Kobe, who was wide-open for 3. Instead, Farmar clanks a 2 to follow his turnover out of bounds on the previous possession. Too many Lakers tentative early.

Good sign for Boston that Garnett is 4-for-6 to open the game. The Celtics are also up 11-8 on the boards, including five at the offensive end.

Garnett with six straight for the Celtics, who lead 20-18.

Walton with four off the bench. Lakers, 18-16.

ABC has to stop with the split screen. We don't need to see a player going to the locker room.

Celtics are trying to pound inside. Odom is holding is ground; Gasol is not.

Kobe hits back-to-back 3s. He's 3-for-3, eight points.

Radmanovic gives up an offensive rebound. He is practically useless.

Kobe opens with a deep 2. Lakers, 2-0.

The Lakers need to follow the prescription to win an elimination-game on the road: stay within striking distance, control the boards, defend for 48 minutes.

Bill Russell, Cedric Maxwell, Jo Jo White, M.L. Carr, John Havlicek among the former Celtics in attendance.

The 1984 Finals have been well-documented. The Lakers probably should have swept, but made crunch-time mistakes in Games 2 and 4 that let the Celtics back in the series. By the time Game 7 rolled around, the Boston Garden faithful helped will the home team to victory. The boisterous, blue-collar crowd was much like the Celtics: hard hats, lunch pails, physical to the nth degree. Boston won the battle of the boards, 52-33, including 20 at the offensive end, and earned 51 free-throw attempts in a 111-102 victory. Lakers coach Pat Riley said afterward: "It was their night, their town, their fans, their friends." The Celtics are severely banged up heading into tonight's Game 6. Can the crowd spur them to another victory? The longer this series goes, the more the advantage shifts to LA.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 5 analysis

2008-06-15T21:07:00.000-07:00

Through five games in this series, the Celtics are the better team and the more disciplined team. Despite two victories at home to extend the series, the Lakers' performances were not good. They were littered with defensive breakdowns and lapses in focus down the stretch. They don't seem capable of sustaining offensive excellence for long stretches, let alone 48 minutes.

As discussed earlier, teams leading 3-2 in the NBA Finals and heading home are 8-for-8 in winning the championship. On seven of those occasions, the home team closed it out in Game 6. In the other one, the 2005 Spurs lost in Game 6, but then bounced back to defeat the Pistons in 7.

In order for the Lakers to win in Boston and stave off elimination, they will have to lock in defensively for four quarters, move the ball better for four quarters, battle on the boards for four quarters, get Gasol, Odom and one shooter going, while also having Kobe in rhythm down the stretch. Those are a lot of things to ask of the Lakers, who haven't strung together a 48-minute game yet.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 5 thread

2008-06-15T19:41:00.000-07:00

Lakers win, 103-98.

House for 3. Celtics within 3, 101-98. Lakers almost turn over the ball. Terrible display trying to close out this game. Fisher at the line: make, make. Lakers, 103-98. 9.0 seconds to go.

Kobe at the line: make, miss. Lakers, 101-95. 15.4 seconds to go.

Fisher at the line: miss, make. Lakers, 100-95. 24.8 seconds to go.

Allen misses a drive and Garnett misses a follow. Lakers ball, up four, 26.8 seconds left.

Kobe strips Pierce again. Odom sends Kobe free for a dunk. Lakers, 99-95. 37.4 seconds to go. Five steals for Kobe.

Fisher misses a long 3.

Kobe can't blow by Allen, whose defense against the world's greatest player is underrated. Kobe forces a long 3, which misses. Odom fouls on the rebound. Pierce at the line: make, make. Lakers, 97-95. 1:14 left. The game is right there for the Celtics.

Kobe at the line: make, make. Lakers, 97-93. 2:14 left.

Gasol misses over Garnett, then fouls him. How can Kobe not have the ball in his hands? Garnett at the line: miss, miss. Lakers, 95-93. 2:31 left.

Pierce blows past three Lakers, fouled. Pierce at the line: make, make. Lakers, 95-93.

Bryant strips Pierce. Fisher at the line: miss, make. Lakers, 95-91. 3:07 left.

Great pass from Kobe to Odom, who goes soft and misses a chance for a 3-point play. Odom at the line: make, make. Lakers, 94-91.

Garnett and Pierce both pick up their fifth fouls in the span of 10 seconds. Lakers lead, 92-91. 3:31 to go.

Gasol over Garnett inside. Lakers, 92-90.

Garnett jumper. Tie game, 90-90. 4:25 left.

With five minutes to go and the game now close, the Lakers' inability to defend Pierce at all could bury them. Bryant is now on Pierce. Every LA possession must run through Kobe.

Odom drops another rebound out-of-bounds. Boston is making a final push. Do the Lakers really want to extend this to another game? Or are they defeated?

Posey for 3. Celtics within 3, 90-86.

Another turnover by Kobe.

More careless fouls by the Lakers. Walton just bumped Pierce 46 feet from the basket. Lakers in the penalty the final 6:22. Celtics within seven, 90-83.

Lakers are settling again. Gasol just made a weak attempt on the block, Kobe launched a contested jumper.

Walton pulls up on the break. Lakers, 88-74.

Gasol has found a bit of inner strength. He's fought harder in block-out situations and just blocked Ray Allen's drive.

Pierce is abusing every defender the Lakers send his way right now. And Kobe, with four fouls, can't afford to aggressively check him.

Odom for 3. Lakers up, 84-72.

Lakers close the third strong, lead, 79-70. They need to dig deep right now and unleash a fastbreak the entire final 12 minutes. Now is not the time to get tentative and walk the ball up the floor.

Fisher gets a conventional 3-point play, Radmanovic adds a corner 3. Lakers fighting back, now lead, 71-64.

Kobe picks up another charge; Celtics team defense is so solid.

At this point, if Boston can stay strong and impose its will on the game they can finish it at the end. Similar to how Miami closed out Dallas on the road in 2006. The Heat were the tougher team in that series too.

Celtics are just tougher, physically too, but mostly mentally. The Lakers have been plagued throughout the Finals by lapses in concentration, lapses in desire to push the ball, lapses in defensive intensity. Being down 3-1, they have to summon the desire to extend this series even though a championship now is unlikely. I'm not sure they can do it.

Second half starting, Lakers lead 55-52, again giving away most of what once was a huge lead.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 5 outlook

2008-06-12T22:06:00.000-07:00

Since the NBA adopted the 2-3-2 format for the NBA Finals in 1985, here's how the eight teams trailing 3-1 in the series fared in a Game 5 at home:

1986 -- Rockets vs. Celtics (W, 111-96)
1987 -- Celtics vs. Lakers (W, 123-108)
1990 -- Blazers vs. Pistons (L, 92-90)
1991 -- Lakers vs. Bulls (L, 108-101)
1996 -- Sonics vs. Bulls (W, 89-78)
1999 -- Knicks vs. Spurs (L, 78-77)
2000 -- Pacers vs. Lakers (W, 120-87)
2001 -- 76ers vs. Lakers (L, 108-96)

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 4 analysis

2008-06-12T21:12:00.000-07:00

Statistics will prove that if you flip a fair coin a few billion times the number of "heads" and "tails" outcomes will be fairly equal. And the closer that "n" approaches infinity, the closer the distribution will approach 50/50. Within those billion flips, however, it is not unusual to see long runs, of say 10 or even more, of one outcome.

Let's translate this theory to basketball. The Lakers and Celtics are fairly equal teams. If these teams traded "n" possessions a few billion times, the score would approach a tie game. Within those billion possessions, however, it wouldn't be unusual to see long scoring runs, for one team, then the other. This happens in basketball games all the time, right? Team A goes on an 8-0 run. Later, Team B goes on an 11-3 run. No big deal.

A 24-point lead (i.e., a run or series of runs equaling a +24 in outcomes) is different for two reasons. First, a game has a set stopping point, one that obviously is far short of a billion or so possessions. Typically, Team B just runs out of time before it can even the score with an equalizing run of its own. Second, and perhaps even more important, however, is that once Team A has a 24-point lead, the game is no longer "fair." Teams often try peculiar lineups, rest their best players, and neither team performs with the same focus and concentration as when the game was close.

How did the Celtics pull off a historic comeback last night and stun the Lakers in Game 4 of the NBA Finals? First, they had help. Human nature kicked in, and the Lakers relaxed. It's impossible to fake or mimic a tie game or a deficit when they don't exist. In their minds, I'm sure the Lakers knew a comeback was remotely possible, but really, it wasn't. Second, the big LA lead had an element of fool's gold. Kobe was never in the flow offensively. Yes, the Lakers needed scoring and involvement from other players, but not at the expense of a sharp Kobe. Why? Well, eventually when the other players cooled off (which they did), and when the Celtics' defense locked in (which it did), Kobe was not in the Game 3-type rhythm that he needed to be in in order to carry home a victory once the game was close.

To actually pull off the comeback, however, the Celtics needed heavy doses of belief and toughness. They stayed in the "fair" game and didn't give up. Belief and togetherness and toughness -- not physically tough (although they have that too), but mentally tough -- aren't born overnight. They are the product of individuals and a roster put together beautifully by Danny Ainge. Once the Big 3 was assembled, Ainge set out to complete a championship roster with tough-minded role players. And certainly Boston's situation was attractive to veteran free agents.

The Celtics signed Eddie House and James Posey. They signed P.J. Brown in February after Paul Pierce and Ray Allen visited Brown during the all-star break and convinced him to join the team. They added defensive coaching guru Tom Thibodeau. They signed Sam Cassell in March. Veteran players, professionals, guys caring more about the end result than personal glory.

Still, you can't just throw a bunch of mismatched pieces against a wall and expect them to stick. Oft-maligned coach Doc Rivers did a stellar job of fitting together the pieces, of developing a cohesive system and also team chemistry.

Year-long effort and commitment and toughness were at the crux of the monumental Game 4 rally.

House had 11 points and zero turnovers in 25 minutes in place of injured and ineffective starter Rajon Rondo. Posey, who has a championship ring from Miami in 2006, chipped in with 18 points, including four 3-pointers, in 25 minutes. Cassell, who has been a role player on two title teams in Houston and also a main cog with the Bucks and Clippers, didn't score in seven minutes last night, but he was repeatedly the first one off the bench to shout encouragement for two quarters straight.

Boston's comeback was improbable, but it was made possible because the Celtics never quit and never stopped believing that the game was fair. And because of that, they gave themselves a chance to catch their own run of success long before the billionth repetition.

The NBA, refs, and fouling

2008-06-11T22:17:00.000-07:00

The NBA Finals are taking a bit of a backseat to talk about former referee Tim Donaghy, betting on games, fixing games, officiating games in a certain manner, league mandates on which outcomes should be "helped," etc., etc., etc. As much as David Stern wants this chapter of his tenure to go away, it won't. In the coming weeks and months, look for more and more information, innuendo, facts, and witnesses to step forward.

In general, I'm not a big believer in conspiracy theories. I find them interesting, like a good TV crime drama: fun to talk about and consider the possibilities, but ultimately not true if only because too many people would have to be involved to pull it off. How would it ever work logistically? (Here's my article on NBCSports.com that looks at some of league's most notorious conspiracy theories).

Then, with the Celtics leading Game 3, 62-60, after three quarters, I wondered aloud how soon Boston would be in the penalty in the fourth quarter.

Foul No. 1: Leon Powe, away from-the-ball, bumps Lamar Odom, 0:39 elapsed.
Foul No. 2: Eddie House, away-from-the-ball, grabbing Kobe Bryant, 1:23 elapsed.
Foul No. 3: James Posey, on a Kobe Bryant shot attempt, 2:49 elapsed.
Foul No. 4: Ray Allen, away from the ball, vs. Luke Walton, 3:41 elapsed.
Foul No. 5: Rajon Rondo vs. Derek Fisher, 5:34 elapsed.

Now, the Celtics aren't the first team to spend the final 5:34 of a tough defensive game in the penalty, but if you're ever wondering how officials can really impact the game this is it. Block/charge calls, traveling calls, etc., are going to be replayed and critiqued numerous times on TV. They're going to be challenged.

But it's the away-from-the-ball bumping, holding, hand-checking calls early in quarters that never are mentioned. Analysts Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson didn't question any of these five fouls, three of which happened 15-20 feet away from the basket and even farther away from the action. The first two, in particular, were highly dubious.

They are calls that could be made on every possession, but aren't. Yet, in the fourth quarter of a pivotal game in the NBA Finals, they were called and they all went in favor of the home team that needed to win to extend the series.

Radio Interview

2008-06-11T19:23:00.000-07:00

Joining Greg Pogue on WNSR (Nashville, Tenn.) to discuss the NBA Finals the morning after Game 3. Click here to hear the audio.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 3 analysis

2008-06-10T20:55:00.000-07:00

The Lakers were better, but still shouldn't feel too great about their 87-81 victory in Game 3. The triangle offense isn't netting them much, Gasol and Odom aren't producing and are playing soft, and without 20 points off the bench from Vujacic, LA doesn't win.

The Celtics, meanwhile, got very little from Pierce and Garnett, who were 8-for-35 combined, yet held a lead in the fourth quarter of a road game in which the Lakers were desperate.

LA's defense was improved -- and that made a huge difference.

Ultimately, for the Lakers to win the next two games, they need to get out and run and get more easy baskets. We're three games into this series now, and it doesn't appear LA's offense will be anywhere near as good as it was earlier in the playoffs. The Celtics' defense is too locked in.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 3 thread

2008-06-10T17:24:00.000-07:00

Lakers win, 87-81.

Bryant over Allen. Lakers, 87-81. Doc Rivers left Allen on an island against Joe Johnson and Rip Hamilton earlier in the playoffs, so you knew this was coming. Rivers just left Allen to guard Kobe alone on consecutive possessions. Bryant hit two jumpers.

House for 3. Lakers, 85-81.

Bryant a long 2. Lakers, 85-78.

Garnett free for a dunk. Lakers, 83-78.

Fisher fouled on a drive: make, make. Lakers, 83-76. 1:33 left.

Vujacic for 3. Lakers, 81-76. 1:53 left.

Garnett off glass. Lakers, 78-76.

Lakers don't get the ball to Kobe on the entire possession, Gasol shoots an air ball.

Pierce at the line: make, make. Lakers, 78-74.

Gasol fouled inside: miss, make. Lakers, 78-72.

Pierce muscles to the hoop, and 1. Celtics within five, 77-72.

Gasol follows up Odom's miss. Lakers, 77-70. Odom is attacking Garnett off the dribble now, which is creating offensive-rebound lanes for Gasol.

Gasol tips in Odom's miss. Lakers, 75-70.

Bryant fouled on a drive, earns two free throws: make, make. Lakers, 73-68.

Fisher fouled on a drive. Celtics in the penalty for the final 6:27. Fisher makes a pair. Lakers, 71-68.

Bryant for 3 off a busted play. Lakers, 69-68.

Vujacic off another curl, buries a long 2. Tie game, 66-all.

Four team fouls on the Celtics, 8:20 to go.

Lakers run another set play for a Vujacic 3, which is on target but just long.

Here come the whistles as Powe and House are called for away-from-the-ball fouls in the first 1:30 of the quarter.

Allen answers for 3. Celtics, 65-63.

Vujacic knocks down a 3 off a set play to open the fourth. Lakers, 63-62.

Over/under on free-throw attempts by the Lakers in the fourth quarter: 15.

Celtics lead after 3, 62-60. Odom and Gasol finally made their first field goals, but the Celtics lead despite Pierce missing 9 of his 10 shots, and Garnett missing 11 of his 15.

Vujacic on Allen. This is trouble for LA.

Kobe on the bench with the Lakers down 61-58 with 1:07 to go in the third.

Allen makes three free throws. He now has 22 on 7-for-10 shooting, including 4-for-4 on 3s. His slump is clearly a distant memory, and that fact has changed the outlook on this series.

Lakers have to run and get some easy baskets. At this point, their entire offense is Kobe trying to beat his man and any and all help defenders. Vujacic is the only other player for LA who showed up and isn't completely overwhelmed by this situation.

Allen for 3. Celtics, 54-50.

Gasol holds it, loses it on a drive. Garnett answers with a deep two. Celtics, 51-49.

Garnett in the lane. Tie game, 49-all.

Gasol and Odom look tentative. They catch the ball and immediately look to get rid of it.

House for 3. Celtics within two, 49-47.

At this point Radmanovic should leave the floor and just keep on walking.

Are you serious? ABC just went split-screen to show Rondo walking back to the locker room with a sprained ankle. What is this, the OJ car-chase?

What's up with Rondo going to that wrap-around, fake-behind-the-back pass so often?

Allen for 3. Celtics within six, 43-37, at halftime. Boston has been outplayed, but this game is well within reach.

Gasol is so soft right now. On back-to-back possessions he was easily doubled and made a predictable pass that was easily picked off, then he rolled to the rim and missed a layin.

Vujacic back-to-back jumpers. Lakers, 38-27.

Farmar for 3. Lakers, 34-25.

Vujacic loses Allen, who comes off a screen and buries a 3. Celtics within four, 29-25. I've said it before, everything Vujacic contributes on offense he gives right back.

Farmar and Brown get tangled up on a rebound. Technicals are issued to both players. Ridiculous. That was nothing. The NBA is hyper-sensitive about every skirmish.

Five Lakers touch the ball, which crisply swings to Vujacic, who knocks down a 3. Lakers, 29-22.

Kobe with a pull-up and two free throws. Lakers, 24-20.

Odom, outworked by Powe for a rebound, picks up No. 3 just 20 seconds into the second quarter.

After the expected early energy, the Lakers are flat again. The crowd is quiet. Fastbreak opportunities are at a minimum, and the game is being played to the Celtics' style again. Tie game at 20 after one quarter.

Garnett is 0-for-5, Pierce 0-for-4, yet Celtics down 1.

Radmanovic loses Posey, who knocks down a 3. Radmanovic picks up another foul, his third, while chasing a loose ball.

Fisher a pull-up in transition. Lakers, 15-7.

Other than standstill, open 3s, Radmanovic is a liability. He can't defend, and his shots off the dribble are very low percentage.

Lakers much more aggressive early, lead, 8-2.

Lakers forcing it into Kobe in the post. This isn't their offense, and Kobe ends up forcing difficult off-balance jumpers.

Bryant on Rondo; Fisher on Allen. I thought the Lakers would align this way the entire series. It does three things that work to LA's advantage: 1) Allows Kobe to roam on defense because Rondo isn't a threat to shoot from outside; 2) Allows Fisher, whose focus is defense to keep close to Allen, who is primarily a jump-shooter; 3) Forces the Celtics to align the same way (i.e., Rondo on Kobe).

Lakers introduced to The Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again."

It isn't often that the team with homecourt advantage (i.e., won more games during the regular season) isn't favored, yet that is what happened this year. So, if you are a conspiracy theorist, you could argue that the Celtics needed help from the referees to secure two wins at home, and thus guarantee a longer series. Had the Lakers won either one or both games in Boston, they could have closed on the series quickly at home.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 2 analysis

2008-06-08T21:44:00.000-07:00

Throw away the big comeback. The bottom line is this: the Lakers are in an 0-2 hole because they've been beat up for two games and have shown very little ability, poise or desire to reverse some disturbing trends.

First off, the Celtics have proved quicker off the dribble, quicker to loose balls, quicker to get into their offense. As a result, LA is a step behind on everything and too often fouls trying to catch up.

The Celtics' defense, meanwhile, has completely blown up the triangle. The Lakers have been forced into post-ups and isolations. The ball isn't moving, Kobe is taking difficult shots, and role players are not well-positioned in order to contribute.

Things, of course, can change in California, but LA has to be more forceful in everything that it does.

Even so, is it too late?

Since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 Finals format in 1985, the team with homecourt advantage has won 17 of 23 series. When that team wins the first two at home, it has won 10 of 11.

Here's more bad news for the Lakers. In 23 series, the middle three games have been swept just four times and only once by the home team (2004 Pistons vs. the Lakers).

* Teams leading 3-2 and going home are 8-0 (seven close-outs in Game 6; one loss in Game 6, followed by a win in Game 7).

* Teams leading 3-2 and going on the road are 4-2 (close-outs in Game 6 by the 85 Lakers, 93 Bulls, 98 Bulls and 06 Heat; Game 6 and Game 7 losses by the 88 Pistons and 94 Knicks).

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 2 preview and radio interview

2008-06-07T21:35:00.000-07:00

Click here to hear me discuss the NBA Finals with JT the Brick on Fox Sports Radio (June 6, 2008).

Game 2 preview

Larry Bird's Celtics and Magic Johnson's Lakers met three times in the NBA Finals (1984, 1985 and 1987).

It's been well-documented that in 1984 LA could have easily won in a sweep: convincing win in Game 1, blowout win in Game 3, and late leads lost in Games 2 and 4, courtesy of improbable turnovers, clock management and choked free throws. The Lakers' mistakes opened the door, and the Celtics, thanks to some physical and inspired play, shoved their way through.

LA's reputation was fastbreak and finesse. Boston's? Hard hats and lunch pails. In the four games the Celtics won in the series, they outrebounded the Lakers by these margins: 9, 6, 14, 19. By the time the teams met for the rematch in 1985, the Lakers were aware of coach Pat Riley's mantra: "No rebounds, no rings."

LA, of course, responded, held its ground, drew even on the boards, even gained substantial advantages in two of its four victories (+12 each in Games 2 and 3), and finally defeated the Celtics in a championship series.

It raises a question that is also relevant in this year's series: Even if one team is at a rebounding disadvantage (due to size, strength, individual matchups, style of play, etc.), how much can that advantage be negated with increased commitment?

In 1985, some additional desire went a long way. In 2008, can Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, even guards Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, push back? Or will the Celtics, who carried out their blueprint for winning these Finals in Game 1, duplicate that performance, especially in the paint, three more times?

Game 2 should give us the answer.

Here come the Trail Blazers

2008-06-07T21:03:00.000-07:00

Not only did Portland win half of its games in 2008 (a nine-game improvement from the previous season), that 41-41 record included some impressive feats: three victories over the Jazz (including one in Utah), two apiece against the Lakers, Mavs and Hornets, one vs. the Pistons. And don't forget ... a 13-game winning streak.

What's next for the Blazers?

* They're adding the No. 1 overall selection in last year's draft, center Greg Oden. Reports are Oden is on schedule with conditioning and rehabilitation following knee surgery. Even if he eases his way back into the flow, it shouldn't take long for Oden to anchor the middle of Portland's defense with his rebounding and shot blocking. A polished offensive game was Oden's biggest weakness, and with this roster he won't be asked to do too much, too soon.

* All-star Brandon Roy leads a core group, including LaMarus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Jarrett Jack and Martell Webster, of Portland's top-five returning players who are all younger than 25.

* Word Friday that Rudy Fernandez, whose NBA rights are owned by the Blazers, will leave his Spanish team and sign with Portland. Fernandez, a 6-foot-6 guard who is 23 years old, averaged 21.2 points as one of Spain's top players. He is a slasher and has shooting range, but needs to get stronger. Odds are he'll develop. How much and how fast? That, of course, remains to be seen.

* The 13th selection in this month's draft. Some projections have the the Blazers landing Joe Alexander, the 6-8 forward from West Virginia. Given how Alexander's athleticism has just blown away observers during recent workouts, his stock is soaring, and the buzz surrounding him is growing. Would be a great score for the Blazers, although I'd be surprised if Alexander is available at 13. Regardless, a quality rotation player will be.

Here's one look at a potential Blazers rotation:

Starters: Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Roy, Fernandez.
Reserves: Outlaw, Jack, Alexander, Frye, Przybilla.

Things are definitely looking up in Portland.

Celtics-Lakers -- Game 1 analysis

2008-06-05T21:36:00.000-07:00

Aside from a few short stretches, the Celtics made sure Game 1 was played to their liking: methodical, efficient and with hard hats. Boston was locked in defensively, rarely out of position, and committed to making life difficult for Kobe Bryant and even more difficult for his teammates.

Even with the attention given to Bryant, the Celtics didn't surrender the 3-point line as the Lakers connected on just 3 of 14 from beyond the arc.

Boston won the battle of the boards, 46-33, but the margin seemed even wider. Even on those 33 rebounds, the Lakers had trouble securing many of them cleanly as the Celtics, even guards Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen, crashed in from the wings in search of loose balls. LA never moved Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe or P.J. Brown out of the paint.

Game 1 was a blueprint for Boston to win games in this series. The Lakers, meanwhile, must get tougher inside, move the ball quicker on offense, and look to get out and run.

Celtics-Lakers join elite company

2008-06-05T21:28:00.000-07:00

Boston won 66 games. With Pau Gasol in the lineup, Los Angeles was 22-5, which projects to 66.8 wins. Prior to this season, on only 10 occasions had teams won 66 or more games. It's quite an accomplishment. Here's a look at those 10 teams and how their seasons ended:

Year Team----Record----Outcome
1967 76ers-------68-13-----won title
1971 Bucks-------66-16----won title
1972 Lakers------69-13----won title
1973 Celtics------68-14-----lost East finals
1986 Celtics------67-15-----won title
1992 Bulls--------67-15-----won title
1996 Bulls--------72-10-----won title
1997 Bulls--------69-13-----won title
2000 Lakers-----67-15-----won title
2007 Mavs-------67-15-----lost first round

Celtics-Lakers -- Finals Preview

2008-06-04T22:04:00.000-07:00

The Celtics were 66-16 during the regular season. The Lakers were 22-5 with Pau Gasol in the lineup (67-15 pace). Never have two teams with this many victories squared off for the title.

Boston also turned in one of the greatest seasons ever at the defensive end of the floor, ranking first in field-goal defense, 3-point defense and efficiency (fewest points per 100 possessions).

The Celtics' main concern, however, is that their offense has become rather ordinary in the postseason. As a result, they are just 12-8 in the playoffs, struggling to close out the Hawks and Cavs in seven games each.

In short, Boston has not shown much of that 66-win form. A big reason why is the drop in production from Ray Allen, whose numbers are down across the board (17.4 points, 44.5 FG%, 39.8 3FG% to 14.2, 40.3, 34.0). Without an effective Allen, the Celtics struggle to score.

The Lakers, meanwhile, are rolling. In the 27 regular-season games with Gasol, LA outscored its foes by a bunch: +11.6 per game. In the playoffs, the Lakers are 12-3 overall (8-0 home, 4-3 road). The scoring margin is down a bit, but still impressive at +6.4. In order, they've dispatched of the Nuggets (a 50-win team and a formidable eight-seed), the Jazz (nearly unbeatable at home and a pick by many to win it all), and the defending champions, the Spurs.

LA's offense is clicking. Kobe is getting his numbers, but for the most part, he's doing it within the offense, which means Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Derek Fisher, etc., are more effective, too. Given the focus on the offense, the Lakers' defense has sailed under the radar, but it's better than advertised.

This series is LA's to lose. Boston's defense has been so tough all year, but the Celtics haven't seen an offense this dialed in with post options, shooters and the best player on the planet. Look for Fisher to lock in on Allen. As we've seen, a shutdown there makes Boston's offense predictable and stagnant. It would absolutely shock me if the Celtics beat LA four times in seven games.

Lakers in 6

Pistons fire Saunders

2008-06-03T11:25:00.000-07:00

The Detroit Pistons firing of coach Flip Saunders essentially boiled down to one reason: Saunders was the reason Detroit failed get back to the NBA Finals and/or win a title during his three seasons.

In other words, GM Joe Dumars, who wasn't going to fire himself, felt that the roster he put together was right, that is was good enough to win, and that it was Saunders fault it didn't.

Dumars was wrong on all three accounts.

Essentially with the core of guards Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton, and forwards Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace, the Pistons have reached the Eastern Conference finals six consecutive seasons. In four of those seasons, they lost in that round. Two other times, both under Larry Brown, the Pistons reached the NBA Finals. In 2004 they won the championship. Brown left after the 2005 season.

Enter Saunders, a good coach (certainly in the league's top third) with a mind for offense. It seemed like a good fit. In Saunders' three seasons, the Pistons won 64, 53 and 59 games. At times, Detroit's offense opened up. Other times, it bogged down just as it had under Brown. More troubling, however, was the fact that the Pistons' collective attitude was still amiss. Not all the time, but at inopportune times. Whether it was Wallace's lack of effort, Prince's aloofness, or Billups' arrogance, this team never seemed to have the right harmony, the right chemistry. Despite the championship, this wasn't a problem that Brown was able to fix. Saunders wasn't able to either.

Dumars and Saunders together deserve credit for drafting well and developing youngsters Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell, both of whom are ready for greater roles, thus making it easier to break up the core group.

But until Dumars actually pulls the trigger on a deal, the Pistons will head down the same path for their new coach: alternating between impressive and maddening. Ultimately, however, they'll continue to fall short.

Dumars announced the decision by saying, "it's time for a new voice to lead our team." Dumars would have been better served with a new team to hear Saunders' voice.

Time for a roster change is now. The coach was fine.

Yao Ming and the Olympics

2008-06-01T21:38:00.000-07:00

Yao Ming's NBA season ended in late February because of a stress fracture in his left foot. Yao had screws placed in the foot on March 3. Recovery time for such an injury is approximately four months. In this case that would be July. Under normal circumstances, a team would push out that timetable a bit further to take advantage of the offseason. These, however, aren't normal circumstances.

Yao is China's most famous athlete, and with the Summer Olympics in Beijing starting in August, a lot of people -- oh roughly, 1/5 of the world's population -- are counting on him to be there, leading the country's basketball team, giving its people something to cheer about and rally around in the wake of tragedy. In addition, the economic impact of Yao's participation is monumental.

The Rockets, meanwhile, also have invested a lot in Yao, who is under contract for $15 million in 2009, $16.3 million in 2010, and $17.7 million in 2011. If I owned the Rockets, a significant part of me would dread Yao playing in these games so soon after the injury. I might even seek compensation for his participation. I realize this isn't a likely possibility due to the prior agreement between China and the Rockets that permits him to play in the United States.

Yao will play because it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It's also the right thing to do.

But for the Rockets it's also scary.

Celtics-Pistons -- Game 6 thread

2008-05-30T17:46:00.000-07:00

Celtics win, 89-81. They held the Pistons to 13 fourth-quarter points in an elimination game. Boston won 66 games during the regular season, but hasn't showed that form much during the postseason so far. The Celtics, however, have been resilient at times. And tonight's performance in a close-out game was impressive. The big guys and the role players all came through. And for all of his wacky moves, such as random player rotations and leaving Ray Allen on an island against Joe Johnson, etc., Doc Rivers did an excellent job with this team. He stayed on the guys about playing hard, didn't desert Allen when he struggled, and pulled this group together beginning in October.

Celtics on a 23-6 run to open the fourth quarter, now lead, 83-76. They're 2:30 away from the Finals.

Pistons played a passionate third quarter, lead, 68-60.

Billups has 18 at the half, but the Celtics lead, 40-37. The Pistons have yet to turn up the intensity, energy and urgency that needs to be displayed to win an elimination game. It's time.

Detroit's greatest strength -- four legitimate all-star caliber players -- is also it's greatest weakness. The Pistons don't have a dominant player. Not only do they not have LeBron James, they don't even have Joe Johnson, who has more sheer talent than anybody on their roster. The Pistons don't have a single player that requires a double-team. Rasheed Wallace has the skills to require a double-team, but he isn't aggressive about posting up often enough to force teams into doing it.

Look back at the loaded 2003 NBA Draft: 1. James (Cle); 2. Darko Milicic (Det); 3. Carmelo Anthony (Den); 4. Chris Bosh (Tor); 5. Dwyane Wade (Mia). Pistons GM Joe Dumars has been criticized for selecting Milicic, and yes, it's deserved. But most arguments have centered on the fact that Dumars should have taken Anthony or Wade. But given Anthony's inability to lead a team at this point, and given Wade's injuries, the pick that would have helped the most is Bosh.

Picture, for a moment, Bosh on this Pistons team. He would be their best player, someone who would require a double-team on the block, which would open up 3-point shooting for Wallace, Billups and Hamilton. Bosh is also a relentless rebounder and shot-blocker too. In some ways, Bosh is the type of player Dumars hoped Milicic had become. That's what he was drafting for, adding that type of player to the roster. He just picked the wrong guy.

Pistons defense is soft early. Both Allen and Pierce have knocked down wide-open 3-pointers with a defender nowhere near the area. Celtics, 14-10.

Pistons are 12-5 when facing elimination the past six postseasons.

Finley for 3! -- Part 2

2008-05-28T06:29:00.000-07:00

Here's a photo taken with 0.9 seconds to go. Note how Finley has moved into position. The ball should already be in his hands at this point, ready to be released.

Finley for 3!

2008-05-27T22:57:00.000-07:00

The reason coaches put their best shooters on the floor for final offensive possessions is because it makes the defense respect numerous options. Having said that, the difference in field-goal percentage between contested shots and open ones is substantial. The Spurs needed to get the highest percentage shot possible on their final play. What they got, however, was one of the lowest. Brent Barry, closed out by Derek Fisher, off one dribble, off-balance, with a release point from his waist? Just guessing here, but only a couple of those out of 100 go in.

In situations like this, since a team has already put its best shooters onto the floor, it matters less who shoots the ball, but rather how open they are, i.e., the highest possible probability of making that shot.

2.1 seconds are enough to catch and make a pass for a rhythm 3 to win. Fisher made an aggressive rotation that could have turned into a monumental error in judgment. He raced to Barry on the inbounds pass, completely leaving Michael Finley on the right wing, who was moving perfectly into that rhythm 3 on the right wing (see photo below, taken with 2.0 seconds left). Barry absolutely needed to make that pass to Finley, who shot 37 percent on 3s during the regular season and is at 35 in the playoffs. Those numbers, of course, are for all 3s. I'd like to think they're higher for open ones, ones where nobody is within 15 feet of him.

Regardless of the exact number, I'm certain Finley is stroking that shot at better than a 2 percent clip. One trademark during the Spurs' successful run is their ability to runs plays such as this to give themselves the best chance to win. Do they always win? Of course not. But if a team puts itself in the best position possible time and time again, it will come through more often than otherwise, and more often than its opponents who lack such precision.

With its season essentially on the line in Game 4, the correct shot for the Spurs was Finley, based on how the play developed.

Lakers-Spurs -- Game 4 thread

2008-05-27T18:01:00.000-07:00

Lakers win, 93-91.

2.1 seconds to go. Horry inbounding the ball to Barry, who is bumped by Fisher and fires an errant shot at the buzzer. Terrible shot. You have to get a clean look there. It matters less who takes the shot, but how open it is. Barry had Finley open to his right, and Ginobili and Horry to his left. Instead, Barry tried to draw a foul and took an off-balance shot that he released from his hip.

To save the season, what does Pop come up with? A two to Duncan, who would likely be fouled and have to tie the game at the line? A three for the win? If so, is it Ginobili, Finley, Barry, Horry?

Spurs force a Fisher air ball, but Horry can't secure the defensive rebound. Two seconds left on the shot clock, 5.6 in the game. Let's see what Jackson comes up with on a quick out-of-bounds play. Bryant forced deep to catch the inbounds pass, fades a long 2 that comes up way short. Spurs call timeout.

Ginobili for 3. Bryant misses on a breakaway layup. Parker scores for 2. Spurs within 2, 93-91. 28.1 seconds.

Bryant misses, but Odom is fouled on the offensive glass. Offensive rebounds were the difference early and now late. Lakers up, 93-76. 56.5 seconds to go.

Parker rolls one in. Spurs down 5, 91-86. 1 minute left.

Duncan inside. Spurs down 6, 90-84.

Gasol beats Duncan to a key offensive rebound, which results in a jumper by Fisher. Lakers, 90-82. Duncan looked a step slow in reacting to the ball off the rim and then trying to track it to the corner.

Barry for 3. Spurs within 6, 88-82.

Kobe dunks off a turnover by Oberto/Ginobili. Lakers on a 7-0 run, 88-79. 3:26 left.

Odom past Oberto. And 1. Lakers, 86-79.

Odom dunks from Gasol. Lakers, 83-79.

Ginobili's 3 attempt for the lead was rushed and way off.

Following Kobe's lead, the Lakers have completely thrown the offense in the trash. Everything is isolation. Farmar just tried to go 1-on-4 and threw up an air ball with the shot clock near zero. Big test for LA: Can these guys trust the offense? Kobe can still get the shot, but it will be a cleaner look if it happens in the triangle.

Ginobili a step-back 2. Spurs within 2, 81-79.

Kobe another long 2. Lakers, 81-77.

Bryant is back and immediately drills a long 2. Lakers, 79-75.

Barry for 3, his fourth. He has 18 points. Spurs within 2, 77-75. 10 minutes to go.

Spurs are going to ride Duncan, who is getting a post touch every trip right now.

Bottom line is that the Spurs, given their current roster, have very little margin for error against a quality opponent. Every player needs to do his part. When one falters, such as Ginobili tonight, it's very, very difficult for them to win. The Lakers, meanwhile, are the better, deeper team. Odom is 2-for-6, Gasol has a quiet 10, yet LA is in position to get a huge road win and grab this series by the throat.

Vujacic for 3. And 1. Lakers lead, 77-70, after 3. Spurs missed their last seven shots of the quarter.

Ginobili to the line. First point at 1:32 to go in the third. 2-for-2 at the line. Spurs within 1, 71-70.

Parker ties it with a short jumper. 65-all.

Spurs are hanging close, but the Lakers are controlling this game: the flow, the rebounding, and Bryant hasn't exerted much energy to get his 20 points. He should be fresh down the stretch to try and steal this one.

Lakers close the half on an 8-2 run to lead, 53-47. They have 11 offensive rebounds, and lead the overall battle of the boards, 28-14. They're outworking the Spurs, who won't win if they don't limit second-chance opportunities.

Tony Parker is unstoppable in the open floor. And 1. Tie game, 43-all. No player is faster end-to-end, but what makes him truly special is the ability to make small changes in direction without slowing down. And he gets just enough of an angle on the defender to avoid a charge.

Barry has been a savior tonight: 12 points. His two free throws pull the Spurs within 3, 43-40.

Ginobili is 0-for-3 with a turnover in 11 unproductive minutes so far.

I can't believe we're stuck with Marv Albert in this game. The guy who gets screwed when TNT only has one series left is Kevin Harlan, who is superior to Albert.

Spurs close the quarter on a 15-6 run to stay in the game, down 28-23, after 1.

Lakers with five offensive rebounds already.

Parker was just matched up in the corner with Fisher, who was in triple-threat. Parker initially closed out a 3-point attempt. Fisher jabbed once, then Bryant walked into Parker's peripheral vision as if he was going to set a screen. Parker took a peek at Bryant. Fisher then jabbed again, creating just enough room to launch a successful 3-pointer. Fisher's only threat in that situation is a 3-point attempt. Parker should have crowded him to force either a dribble or pass.

Lakers efficient at both ends. Bryant 4-for-4. Lakers, 22-8.

Ginobili in. Spurs down, 12-4.

Gasol and Odom going strong to the board at both ends. Lakers lead, 10-4.

As expected, the Spurs played with a tremendous amount of urgency in Game 3 and picked up a home victory in must-win situation. Manu Ginobili rebounded from a pair of sub-par games in LA and delivered 30 points. Is his ankle healed enough to do it again?

Can the Lakers, meanwhile, take a big step toward a title? Winning Game 4 for an all-but-over 3-1 advantage would do it.

Banged up and battered, the Spurs fight on

2008-05-23T21:44:00.000-07:00

The Spurs' team bus navigated the steep ramp inside KeyArena and came to a stop outside the visiting team's locker room. It was Jan. 29, two hours before tip-off against the Seattle Sonics, and San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich appeared harried.

Never to be confused with a fashion model, Popovich, wearing gray sweatpants with a T-shirt and a black leather jacket, was on the move. In one door, out another, pace quickening. He stopped to talk to an assistant coach, then the training staff.

Inside the locker room, inside a small training room where players receive pre-game treatments (e.g., taped ankles, ice baths, electro-stimulizations, etc.), Tony Parker was being examined. Popovich entered the room and closed the door shut behind him. Words were not audible, but voices (mostly Popovich's) could be heard coming from the room. A minute or so later, the door opened. Popovich, still moving with a purpose, had made his decision.

Parker, coming off a 1-for-7, four-turnover game the night before in Utah, would not play against the Sonics. Parker's injured left foot was bothering him and playing on it wasn't helping. Popovich, against Parker's wishes, decided to shut down his point guard.

Popovich later explained this to the media: The only way to survive the playoffs is by being at full-strength physically. Pop didn't want Parker's injury to linger any longer, to jeopardize his postseason. Parker missed a total of nine games. He returned to play the final two months of the regular season. And he's been the Spurs' best performer thus far in the postseason.

Playoff teams, particularly in the West, are simply too evenly matched to expect success when key guys are hobbling. While Parker is healthy, Manu Ginobili is not. His ankle is Jello, thanks to an injury suffered in Game 1 of the first round against the Suns. His versatile game, which typically includes a big dose of explosive drives to the basket, has been reduced to 3-pointers and free throws.

His effectiveness diminished, Ginobili still gutted out 25 and 26 points respectively as the Spurs fought off elimination to win Games 6 and 7 against the Hornets. But the quick turn to face the fresh and impressive Lakers was too much as Ginobili tallied just 17 points on 5-for-21 shooting combined in the first two games, both wins by Los Angeles.

Against the Lakers, a healthy Ginobili may not have mattered. Since acquiring Pau Gasol via trade, the Lakers are 31-6, including 10-2 in the postseason (7-0 in LA, where they have enjoyed homecourt advantage throughout the West bracket).

With a banged up Ginobili, however, the Spurs' chances were slim to begin with. Now down 2-0, and again forced to win four of the final five, those chances are rapidly slipping away to nothing. But even if they come up short of a title this year, San Antonio's dispatching of the Suns and Hornets deserves to be ranked alongside some of its greatest accomplishments.

Sunday's Game 3 will be the Spurs' 15th playoff game in 2008 and 105th since 2003. Essentially, they've crammed another season-and-a-half's worth of games (all high intensity against quality opposition, too) into the span of six years. Not only does that put additional stress on bodies that just completed a grinding regular season, playing into June also means shorter offseasons, and thus, less recovery time.

I'm not saying that Ginobili's injury is the product of overuse, but rather that in order to beat the best team in the league, one that is performing at its peak, everyone needs to be at full-strength and that includes Tim Duncan, who isn't dominating as much or as frequently as he once did.

Sometimes, players who have been through the ringer, oh, say, 105 extra times in six years, summon the energy to get it done again -- and their bodies don't respond.

Lakers-Spurs -- Prediction

2008-05-21T21:39:00.001-07:00

The Lakers have clearly been the class of the West so far, actually ever since the Gasol trade. Their level of efficiency on offense, the easy baskets, and of course, Kobe, make them a very difficult cover. It's hard to take anything away from them.

The Spurs, meanwhile, showed some deficiencies (Games 1, 2, 5 vs. New Orleans), but they also showed the mettle of defending champions (Phoenix series, Game 7 vs. New Orleans). They're still good, but not as good. Duncan doesn't dominate as frequently, and Ginobili still has no explosiveness pushing off that gimpy ankle. His drives have been reduced to almost nothing.

Lakers in 6

Celtics-Pistons -- Prediction

2008-05-21T21:31:00.000-07:00

A couple of things stand out here ...

1) These Celtics are not the same ones who went 66-16 during a historic regular season. Ray Allen is a shadow of the all-star he used to be. They've been very good at home, but were fortunate to escape Cleveland in Game 7. On the road, meanwhile, they've been abysmal.

2) It's impressive that through two rounds the Pistons have yet to begin what's become their annual "in-fighting, it's Flip's fault routine." Have they matured? Are they trying to set a good example for the kids (i.e., Stuckey, Maxiell)?

If Detroit gives an even effort throughout, they'll win one game in Boston and wrap up this series at home.

Pistons in 6

LeBron's Game 7 -- a closer look

2008-05-18T19:18:00.000-07:00

LeBron James (45 points) and Paul Pierce (41) engaged in a magnificent duel in Sunday's Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics, becoming just the second pair -- joining Sam Jones (47) and Oscar Robertson (43) in the 1963 East finals between the Celtics and Royals -- to go for 40-plus in Game 7 history (now 99 games in all).

LeBron's effort was valiant for many reasons: in part because trying to win a Game 7 on the road is a difficult task, in part because the Celtics had just about steamrolled everyone in winning their first seven home postseason games this spring, in part because the Celtics had won 66 games during the regular season (a total that puts them in quite elite company, historically), and in part because LeBron's teammates, well, they're just not very good.

While likely spirited, MVP discussions including Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and LeBron won't reach conclusion. They're all worthy candidates. My uncounted vote went to Kobe, but one part of the MVP conversation could not be clearer: LeBron has less to work with. If you lined up those three guys' teammates and held a draft, only Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, out of 33 players, likely would be among the first 10 selections.

Still, LeBron dragged the Cavs inside the final two minutes with a victory still within reach. One more rebound, one more free throw made, one more loose ball secured might have pushed the Cavs over the top. Here's a look at LeBron's day and just how much Cleveland needed him to be spectacular just to have a chance:

By Quarter
-------------Mins---FGs----3Gs----FTs---O-TR---A---ST---BL---TO---PF---PTS
Quarter 1---12:00--3-7-----0-0----3-4----0-1-----0---0----0-----1-----0-----9
Quarter 2---10:48--4-8-----0-2----6-7----0-0-----1---0----0-----1-----2-----14
Quarter 3---12:00--3-5-----1-3----2-3----1-2-----4---1----0-----0-----1-----9
Quarter 4---12:00--4-9-----2-6----3-5----0-2-----1---1----0-----0-----1-----13
Total--------46:48--14-29--3-11--14-19---1-5-----6---2----0-----2-----4-----45

By Shot Selection
-------------Paint---2ptJS---3ptJS
Quarter 1---2-4-----1-3-----0-0
Quarter 2---2-4-----2-2-----0-2
Quarter 3---1-1-----1-1-----1-3
Quarter 4---2-3-----0-0----2-6
Totals-------7-12----4-6-----3-11

By Involvement----------------------------------Paint Outcomes---------------
-------------Poss---Touch---Paint---FGs---Fouled---FTs---Pass---Turn---Tip
Quarter 1---23------16-------5------2-4---------1------2-2---------0------0-----0
Quarter 2---25------20------9------2-4----------3-------5-6--------1-------1-----0
Quarter 3---24------21-------2------1-1---------2*------2-3---------0------0-----0
Quarter 4---24------21-------7------2-3---------3-------2-4---------0------0-----1
Total-------96-------78------23-----7-12--------9-------11-15-------1------1------1
* Includes one "and-1"
While LeBron was in the game, the Cavs had 96 possessions. He had at least one touch on 78 of those possessions. Of those 78, he got to the paint on 23 of them, resulting in 7-for-12 shooting, being fouled nine times (one was a continuation) and three miscellaneous outcomes (hence, 12 + 9 + 3 - 1 = 23).

Non-LeBron Possessions
While LeBron was in the game, the 18 possessions where he didn't get a touch ended like this:
West-------2-4 (2-2 free throws, 5 turnovers, 3 assists)
Ilgauskas ---0-2
Jones-------1-2 (3-pointer)
Varejao-----1-1
Wallace-----1-1
Smith-------1-1
Pavlovic----0-1
Totals------6-12, 5 turnovers
^ 18 possessions resulted in 15 points.
^ The 78 possessions where LeBron got a touch resulted in 77 points.
^ In the 1:12 that LeBron sat in the second quarter, the Cavs did not score (0-for-2 with one turnover).
^ When LeBron was not involved, West was the only player with the ability and desire to attack. Unfortunately for the Cavs, while he made a couple of shots and nice passes, West also had five of his six turnovers on those possessions.

Analysis
LeBron doesn't shy away from contact, from attacking. But even LeBron, for all his greatness, especially when his tank is approaching empty and opponents are trying to force him to a certain area on the floor, occasionally convinces himself that his jumper will get the job done when the right play is to keep attacking.

LeBron's entire body of work in Game 7 was brilliant, and overall (he had touches on 42 of the Cavs' 48 second-half possessions!) the numbers show he was plenty aggressive, but ... for the Cavs to overcome all of the obstacles noted earlier, they needed even more driving from James (especially late).

With Cleveland down 89-88 with 2:01 left, James snared a defensive rebound. With a chance to give his team the lead, James ground down 21 seconds on the shot clock before rising with a long 3-pointer that missed. On the game's biggest possession, James went with his least effective option (see shot chart). In fact, despite connecting on 4 of his 6 2-point jumpers through three quarters, James didn't take any of them in the final 12 minutes.

On Cleveland's next possession, with the Cavs now down, 91-88, LeBron started on the left side of the floor (instead of the preferred top in a 1-4 set, where a trap is easier to escape), where he was easily doubled near the sideline and forced to give up the ball. West missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer.

So, on the two biggest possessions of his season, LeBron was either unable or unwilling to get to the basket, or even get into 2-point range.

The Cavs needed so much from their superstar all season, but with the roster in its current state, they needed even more from him, even more than those 45 points, to beat the Celtics on Sunday.

Celtics-Cavs -- Game 7 (pre-tipoff)

2008-05-18T12:12:00.000-07:00

* Sasha Pavlovic, the starting guard on last year's Cleveland team that reached the NBA Finals, has showed some signs of rounding back into shape. Look for him to get more of Gibson's minutes. He could be a huge X-factor for the Cavs today.

* The best way to win a road game of this magnitude is to allow the home team and its fans to feel comfortable. In other words the longer the Cavs can keep the scoring margin +/- 5, the better. Just lull everyone along.

* Given Ray Allen's struggles, the Celtics need Paul Pierce's offense more than ever today. Although Pierce's defense on LeBron James has been stellar, it has also sapped him of energy and focus at the offensive end of the floor. Boston should put James Posey on James and let Pierce focus almost exclusively on offense.

* Daniel Gibson first emerged as a rookie last season as a big-time shot-maker. Gibson, who won't play today because of a separated shoulder he suffered in Game 5, will be sorely missed. Gibson is shooting 45.2 percent from beyond the arc in this year's postseason, averaging 9.0 points in nearly 26 minutes per game.

* On the pregame studio show Michael Wilbon has made no less than four errors regarding Game 7 history.

The Utah Jazz and fouling

2008-05-16T17:56:00.000-07:00

If a coach patrols the sidelines long enough, eventually his team's personality and style will match his as an individual.

It should come as no surprise then that the Utah Jazz are a reflection of Jerry Sloan, who has guided the NBA team in Salt Lake City for the past 20 years.

As a player, Sloan, who spent 10 of his 11 seasons with the Chicago Bulls, was all about toughness, defense (four first-team selections, two second-team), effort and ... fouling. Make no mistake -- all those things go together. Although he was also a better than average offensive player (14 ppg for his career), defense was his game. Sloan was a scrapper. He bumped, pushed through, pursued the ball and the man, and he did all of them relentlessly.

Sloan's 2008 Jazz were whistled for more fouls that any other team in the league: 24.0 per game on average. (By comparison, the league average was 21.0; New Orleans, meanwhile, committed the fewest, 18.7).

In fact, in six of the past eight years, the Jazz have been the most foul-prone team in the NBA. Coincidence? Unlikely. Even though personnel matters, did Utah acquire players to execute Sloan's style? Or did Sloan mold the players to fit his image?

Watch the Jazz play for a quarter or two. Don't, although it is easy to do because Deron Williams does some amazing things, get caught staring the ball. Watch inside. On offense, no team runs off-the-ball cuts with more purpose, and sets screens with more conviction. Ditto on defense, where no team bumps more cutters, fights through more screens, and bodies up to more perimeter players.

Imagine gauging defense in this manner ... One end of the scale is as far from fouling as possible, say standing 10 feet away from your opponent, feet planted, hands at your sides, never moving. The other end of the scale is the most obvious foul possible, say reaching out with two hands to grab the opponent, perhaps even wrapping them up.

For the defensive team, every possession then -- both for the five players on the floor as individuals and collectively as a group -- involves defending somewhere between those two extremes. And somewhere on that continuum is the pivot point where the contact is too much, where fouls are called. It's not black-and-white, of course. Every referee has his/her own slightly different point.

Now, given that the goal of defense is to prevent the other team from scoring, one good way to do this is to spend as many possessions as possible as close as possible to -- and just to the left of -- that pivot point where fouls are called. The Jazz do this more than any other team in the NBA. They're physical for 48 minutes. They're constantly on the edge of being called for fouls. It's who they are and a big part of why they're successful.

One problem, of course, is that when a team spends so much time close to the line, it also crosses that line more often than others. And in this series against the Los Angeles Lakers, who have the practically unguardable Kobe Bryant, a smooth post player in Pau Gasol, the length, size and quickness of Lamar Odom, and an effective offensive system, the Jazz are fouling even more.

In the first five games of the series, Utah has been called for foul totals of 33, 30, 28, 27 and 31 (contributing to an average of nearly 39 free-throw attempts per game for Los Angeles). Given the Lakers' offensive skills, as well as the more intense nature of the postseason, these numbers aren't entirely unreasonable.

Every coach says his team needs to defend without fouling. That is true, but defending well means defending very close to fouling. Keeping from crossing that line, especially against a talented offensive team with matchup advantages, is difficult to do.

Hornets-Spurs -- Game 5 thread

2008-05-13T18:46:00.001-07:00

The point differentials in the first five games: 19, 18, 11, 20, 22. The 1993 Western semifinal between the Sonics and Rockets, which went seven games (all won by the home team), had the following point differentials: 9, 11, 18, 11, 25 and 13 for the first six games. Game 7 then went overtime, which the Sonics won by three. The Rockets missed go-ahead shots in the closing seconds of regulation and overtime.

It's over. Hornets, 101-79.

West: 38 points, 14 rebounds, 5 blocked shots. One of San Antonio's many trademarks during its run of titles is the assembling of a roster with role players who can contribute unique skills (e.g., 3-point shooting, rebounding, defense, etc.) when they are needed. This roster lacks a single player who can slow West. Perhaps Luis Scola? Oh, that's right. He's gone.

Spurs played another good first half in New Orleans, but the Hornets just took control in the third quarter and ran away. Hornets lead the series, 3-2. Can either team win a road game? Game 6 in Thursday. Game 7 would be Monday.

Udoka for 3. Spurs within eight, 85-77. 4:45 left.

West has 34. Hornets, 78-63.

Hornets outscore the Spurs, 28-11, in the third quarter, lead, 72-58. West has 30. Duncan, meanwhile, is 4-for-16.

Peterson for 3. Hornets, 68-54.

Paul fouled again, more free throws coming. Hornets, 65-54.

Peterson for 3. Hornets, 64-51.

Chandler from Paul. Hornets, 61-51. The run is now 17-4.

Spurs' offense is stagnant. Ginobili and Parker need to get going to the basket.

Paul hits two at the line. Hornets, 59-51.

Paul again inside. Hornets, 57-51. New Orleans is continuing the trend from the first two games -- a big third-quarter surge, 13-4, to open.

Chandler blocks Duncan, and the Hornets are running and outhustling the Spurs.

Paul for 3. Hornets, 55-51.

Paul's runner gives the Hornets the lead, 50-49.

West has 24. The Spurs have no answer.

Spurs lead at the break, 47-44. They held leads in the first two games in New Orleans too, but the Hornets blew open the games with huge third quarters. Can they force the tempo again?

Parker has disappeared during stretches of some of the Spurs' playoff runs in the past, but he has been absolutely fearless throughout the first two series this year. He is settling for nothing, constantly attacking the defense, taking heavy punishment, and coming back for more.

Hornets taking advantage of slips/turnovers by Parker and Ginobili to crank up their fastbreak. Tie game, 43-all.

Neither team is shooting well. The game has no flow. Play is somewhat ragged. All of this favors San Antonio, which leads, 38-32.

Ginobili for 3. Spurs, 37-30.

Paul gets his first field goal on a drive with 6:09 to go before halftime, and 1. Hornets within 3, 31-28.

West now guarding Duncan 1-on-1 and holding his own without a double-team.

Ginobili's first attack of the basket, draws a foul. Spurs, 29-22.

Duncan gets his first basket, and 1. Spurs, 28-22.

Spurs lead, 23-21, after 1.

Double personals and double technicals on Ely and Oberto. In the end, this will have no impact on the game. But step up and make a call. Gutless move by Joey Crawford.

Parker pushes through Ely on the break, and 1. Spurs, 19-13.

Offensive foul on Chandler, who goes to the bench with two personals. 3:17 left in the first.

Parker and Bowen for 3. Spurs, 14-13.

West is 4-for-4. Hornets, 13-8.

Spurs open 1-for-9; Duncan 0-for-4.

West has found his outside shot again. Hornets, 9-3.

Hornets are delaying the double on Duncan until after the second dribble.

Ginobili's ankle is still bothering him -- and significantly more than he's letting on. He has no explosion off the dribble, failing to take Peja on consecutive drive attempts.

Hornets active on defense early, but they give up two offensive rebounds on the first possession.

The Spurs' adjustments the past two games -- most notably, Bowen guarding Stojakovic -- have not only help even the series, they've positioned San Antonio well for tonight and beyond.

For New Orleans to bounce back in Game 5 and ultimately win this series, the Hornets will have to outwork the Spurs, and relentlessly push the basketball, which would do wonders for all, especially Stojakovic and his transition 3s.

O.J. Mayo: The rise or fall of USC?

2008-05-13T17:55:00.000-07:00

A lot has been written about ESPN's report of O.J. Mayo accepting gifts or cash, or gifts and cash, or just gifts.

The biggest question surrounding this story was not if, but when. Several people I talked to even months before Mayo's arrival at USC believed that Southern Cal coach Tim Floyd was either directly involved in player "incentives" or simply turned his back while the impropriety was taking place.

Let's see where this story goes, but I think we all have a good idea how it's going to turn out.

In the meantime, consider this ...

Of the 29 Trojans who went on to play in the NBA, the three best -- Gus Williams, Paul Westphal and Bill Sharman -- all entered the pro ranks before the mid-1970s had passed. USC's most notable player in the past 30 years was Harold Miner, aka "Baby Jordan," who followed three spectacular college seasons with four unspectacular NBA seasons. By 1996 he was gone for good.

In a nutshell, USC has zero basketball tradition.

In Floyd, it has a kinda geeky, kinda nondescript head coach, who washed out of the NBA after the equivalent of four seasons and .280 winning percentage, and whose greatest collegiate success took place at Iowa State.

And, yet, Mayo, widely considered the No. 1 college recruit in the country in 2007, decided that USC was the best fit for him. Never mind that Mayo is from Huntington, W.V. Never mind that he could have played for Duke, or Florida, or Kentucky, or North Carolina, or Kansas, or any of the other big-time powers.

USC. It's always been in Los Angeles, where the benefits are many and obvious. But none of that has ever before lured a top recruit capable of making the Trojans an elite program.

Mayo to USC? It just doesn't add up. It's something that one of many TV crime dramas could neatly unravel and tie back into a bow in a tidy 60 minutes (commercials included).

And now for 2008 Floyd has signed Demar DeRozan, another top-10 recruit (at least he's from Los Angeles). Three players in the class of 2009's top-10, meanwhile, are also considering USC.

Maybe Floyd is taking the Trojans to greater heights.

Or maybe he's going to drag them down with him.

Lakers: From up to even

2008-05-11T20:28:00.000-07:00

The Lakers won their first six playoff games, and with a couple more stops and a couple more buckets this weekend, they could have swept the Jazz, too. Everything was going great for LA: Kobe was on top of his game, Odom and Gasol were flourishing in the triangle, Fisher was knocking down open 3s, the ball was moving, both the initial defense and rotations were sharp enough. Quite simply, they had the look of a champion.

What a difference a weekend in Salt Lake makes.

Where are the Lakers now?

Kobe injured his back in Game 4, and Utah's physical style at both ends of the floor has gotten the best of LA's frontline the entire series, but most notably in Utah. Most important, however, is how the ball stopped moving during crucial junctures in the fourth quarter and overtime on Sunday.

Look, Kobe has won countless games by taking over down the stretch and scoring at will. And he has plenty of those games left in his future. But Kobe's, and the Lakers', biggest growth this season (and why they're title contenders) is trusting the teammates who have become more viable options, and trusting the offense that puts those teammates in the best positions to contribute.

And so, with his stiff back limiting his explosiveness and lift, Kobe, now more than ever, needed to trust the offense, and the teammates who earned that trust, throughout a first-place season. In particular, Gasol, Odom and Fisher -- the latter two combined for 20 fourth-quarter points and led the late charge that forced overtime. Instead, much of LA's late-game and overtime offense consisted of clear-outs for Bryant, who forced errant 3-pointers and stalled the offense.

There is no way the Lakers should lose to the Jazz. They are the better team. They have the matchup advantages. But now this is a series. And regardless of whether or not Kobe's condition improves, more games in this series (and perhaps beyond) will be in doubt coming down the stretch. How will Kobe and the Lakers play it?

Hornets-Spurs -- Game 4

2008-05-11T20:26:00.000-07:00

Spurs win comfortably, 100-80. They are better positioned to win in New Orleans now than they were in Game 1 and Game 2.

Why?

Key adjustments by Popovich.

* Switching Bowen onto Stojakovic. Accepting that Paul will get certain point-assist totals regardless of who's guarding him, the Spurs are manning up with Parker and helping the best they can. But Peja gets almost all of his points when guys help off of him or via the break trailer. Bowen is taking away both of those options.

* Giving the Hornets an early, large and steady dose of Parker, who is being as aggressive as ever.

* Properly spacing the floor to give Duncan easy angles to find 3-point shooters when the double-teams come, which is on every catch. Look for the Hornets to delay the doubles, perhaps on the first or second dribble. I'm sure Duncan and the Spurs are preparing for this (i.e., not holding the ball, going 1-on-1 immediately).

On the perimeter -- news and notes

2008-05-08T21:24:00.000-07:00

* I wrote earlier about the power of desperation, and that's clearly what we saw tonight from San Antonio. The Spurs not only are the defending champions and a very proud bunch, they're also talented enough to get a win against a very good New Orleans team that played superbly for two consecutive games.

Much like a baseball manager going to his closer in the eighth inning of an elimination game, Popovich started Ginobili in Game 3. Despite the tender ankle, Manu delivered with 31 points. Parker added 31 and 11 assists, and Duncan chipped in with 16 to give with Big Three 78 much-needed points.

The game was evenly played except in one area: 3-point shooting. In part thanks to Bowen's defense that limited Stojakovic to eight points, the Hornets were 2-for-11 from beyond the arc. The Spurs, meanwhile, were 11-for-25.

San Antonio now catches a big break as Game 4 isn't until Sunday night, almost three full days of rest.

* Give the Celtics' effort and schemes credit, but LeBron has obviously been off his game as well. He followed the 2-for-18, 10-turnover line in Game 1 with 6-for-24 and seven turnovers tonight. Naturally, the Cavs have no chance if LeBron plays this poorly. Everything, of course, has been off.

Keep and eye on ... On his hard drives to the basket that he can't finish with dunks, if LeBron's angle to the glass is taken away, he seems to have much more difficult time than others with his layup attempts. Too many of his tries hit the back rim. A finger roll would work wonders here, but that shot isn't in many bags of tricks anymore. Calling George Gervin ...

* The way the Lakers are playing, especially on offense with huge matchup advantages for Kobe and Odom and Gasol, it's hard to imagine them not getting at least one (and maybe both) against the Jazz in Utah. At 6-0, LA has a lot of confidence and has yet to be dealt a reason to doubt itself. A huge step for their title moxie would be a win in Game 3.

* A lot of not very bright people out there have commented recently that Rashard Lewis, with his 33-point performance in Orlando's Game 3 win vs. Detroit, has either:

a.) earned his money; or b.) diffused the anger over his large contract.

Have these people not seen the contract?

2008: $15.6M
2009: $17.2M
2010: $18.9M
2011: $20.5M
2012: $22.1M
2013: $23.7M

Let's get one thing straight ... In order to earn that money, Lewis would have to finish top-three in MVP voting and lead Orlando to a title or two. Actually, that still might not be enough.

Celtics-Cavs -- Game 1 thread

2008-05-06T17:35:00.000-07:00

This series is going to be more of the same: low scoring, grind it out, defense, etc.

Garnett finishes with 28 and hit some big shots down the stretch.

James misses a 3. Celtics win, 76-72.

Posey at the line: make, make. Celtics, 76-72. 8.5 seconds left.

James makes a great move, gets all the way to the rim, but misses another layup. He did everything but put it down. Not sure he could have dunked it, but his angle to use the board was gone and he hit the back rim. 2-for-17.

Hmm ... Do the Cavs run it down and go for 3? Trailing by two, you have to run the clock down to about five or six seconds. A 2 or a 3? Doesn't matter. Just get the best shot, but you have give yourself a chance at a tip and/or foul and try again.

Garnett over Joe Smith inside. Celtics, 74-72. 21.4 seconds.

Ilgauskas tips in LeBron's layup miss. Tie game, 72-all.

Cassell, who's playing for Rondo down the stretch again, hits two free throws. Celtics, 72-70.

James can't turn the corner going right against Pierce. First time he was called for a charge. Now he's forced into a tough layup attempt while falling out of bounds.

Garnett a deep 2. Tie game, 70-all.

Ilgauskas from James. Cavs, 70-68. 1:30 left.

Gibson for 3. Tie game, 68-all. 2:14 left.

James just picked up his 10th turnover. Gibson in the game for the Cavs. Apparently, this blog is on a live feed to an earpiece worn by Mike Brown.

Why is Daniel Gibson not in the game as the Cavs launch brick after brick?

LeBron to the rim, lefty finish. Cavs within 1, 66-65.

Wally for 3 from James. Cavs within 3, 66-63.

Cassell another jumper. Celtics, 66-60.

LeBron needs to get the hoop instead of settling for jumpers. I realize he's struggling, but this game is ripe for the taking. He needs to go get it.

Cassell for 3. Celtics, 64-60.

Ilgauskas rejects Garnett at the rim.

Cavs up, 60-59, early in the fourth quarter.

LeBron is 1-for-10 with nine turnovers. Pierce is 2-for-12 with five turnovers. Allen is 0-for-4 with three turnovers.

Celtics close the third on an 8-1 run to regain the lead, 53-52.

Wally for 3. Cavs, 51-45.

LeBron is 1-for-9 with seven turnovers, but the Cavs have come back to take the lead, 48-45, midway through the third.

Given his size, speed and strength, LeBron on the break is simply devastating. There's never been another player who attacked in the open floor quite like he does. Rarely do opponents step in to take a charge (not good for their health), but when they do he often has the agility to avoid them. There really is nothing a defender can do except let LeBron go or foul him.

Posey for 3 at the end of the first quarter. Celtics have it going at both ends, lead, 25-15.

Dick Stockton announcing a playoff game in Boston ... how cool. Where is Tommy Heinsohn? I know he's there, but couldn't TNT borrow him for a night? CBS intro music please. I don't ask for much.

Hornets-Spurs -- Game 2 thread

2008-05-05T18:47:00.000-07:00

Hornets win, 102-84. Paul with 30 points and 12 assists, and he led another huge third quarter that turned the game in New Orleans' favor.

Peja for 3. Hornets, 92-76. This one is over. Again, the Hornets are more athletic, more active, more efficient, better shooters, better rebounders, etc. The Spurs are going home for two games, but right now it is hard to imagine these games going any differently. New Orleans has advantages in so many areas.

Ginobili for 3. Spurs within nine, 85-76.

Hornets lead after 3, 78-64.

Peja for 3. Hornets, 70-56.

Paul two more at the line. Hornets, 67-54.

Paul for 3. Hornets, 63-53.

Peja for 2. Hornets, 52-43. 10-0 run.

Peterson for 3. Hornets lead, 50-43. 8-0 run.

Chandler amazing block on Parker.

Peja for 3. Paul drives for 2. Five in a row to open the third for the Hornets, who lead, 47-43.

Parker for 3 at the buzzer. Somehow, the Spurs lead at the half, 43-42. The feeling here is that the Hornets are better, that they'll turn it up (particularly Paul) in the second half. Can the Spurs keep up? San Antonio's pick-and-roll game is producing nothing. Parker and Ginobili can't get to the hoop. Although better, Duncan is ordinary. If things stay the same, their entire fate this series will come down to making 3-point shots (3-for-14 in the first half). They're completely being forced into something they don't want.

Wright again for 3. Hornets, 40-36.

The Spurs are not sharp. They either miss an open shot, or more often run a poor set that results in a turnover or the wrong guy forcing.

Peja for 3. Hornets, 34-31.

Julian Wright for 3. Tie game, 31-all.

Paul back in the game. Hornets down, 29-26.

Ginobili to Udoka on the break. Spurs, 29-22.

Ginobili hits two straight jumpers to open the second. Spurs, 27-22.

Somehow, the Spurs lead after 1, 23-22. They shot 38 percent, including 1-for-7 on 3s. Paul leads the Hornets with eight points (4-for-5) and four assists.

Ginobili has three turnovers in six minutes.

Ginobili says his ankle is fine, but he lacks his usual explosion on drives. In fact, he isn't attacking the rim at all. He comes off the pick-and-roll looking to pass and has basically become a standstill 3-pointer shooter.

With West struggling at the start, Paul is aggressive looking for his shot.

Duncan still has no lift on rebounds.

Two fouls on Chandler in the first 5:28.

Paul two in a row in the lane. Hornets, 8-4.

Chandler rejects Parker at the rim.

Bowen on Paul. Thomas on West.

Albert and Miller again. Ugh.

Lakers-Jazz -- Game 1 thread

2008-05-04T12:41:00.000-07:00

Lakers win, 109-98. Utah got into its game for a big chunk of the second half and had a 58-41 edge on the boards (including 25 offensive), but they had no answer for Bryant. Lakers were able to turn it up when they needed to.

Bryant at the line: make, miss. Lakers, 99-90.

Bryant to Gasol. Lakers, 98-90.

Brewer at the line: make, miss. Jazz down six, 96-90.

Gasol taps in a miss. Lakers, 96-89.

Vujacic blocked at the rim, Korver misses on a curl.

Williams at the line: make, make. Jazz within five, 94-89, 2:39 left.

Bryant at the line: make, miss. Lakers, 94-87. Boozer fouls out: 15 points, seven turnovers.

Great play out of the timeout. Bryant to Gasol to Odom, and 1. Lakers, 93-87.

Lakers are in hang-on mode, instead of using their strengths: running, passing, finishing open shots. Jazz have 22 offensive rebounds.

Brewer on the break. Jazz within four, 91-87. 4:31 left. Bryant has missed his last three shots.

Korver for 3. Jazz within six, 91-85. 5:03 left.

Another offensive rebound for the Jazz, who keep the deficit at seven.

All of the fouls have taken the flow out of this game. Plus, the Lakers have stopped running.

Okur at the line: make, make. Lakers lead down to 5, 85-80. 7:36 left.

Kobe back in the game, pull-up jumper at the foul line. Lakers, 85-76.

Another foul on the Lakers. The Jazz will get free throws the final 8:46.

Three off-the-ball fouls by the Lakers in the first two minutes of the fourth quarter. They're getting caught trying to chase cutters and screeners.

Utah's 20th offensive rebound leads to a 3 from Williams in the closing seconds of the third. Lakers' lead, which had reached 19, is down to seven after three quarters, 79-72.

Jazz have turned around this game's flow, which is now bump-and-grind. Lakers aren't running anymore.

Gasol with two very soft attempts inside, the biggest weakness in his game. I'll never understand why he doesn't catch and finish with two hands.

Boozer inside. Jazz with seven, 71-64.

Bryant with a strong drive for two. Lakers, 71-60.

Jazz are pounding the offensive glass with 19 offensive rebounds.

Nine in a row for the Jazz. Utah within 10, 68-58.

Gasol from Fisher on the break. Lakers, 66-49.

Kobe gets two more at the line. Lakers lead, 54-41, at halftime. Bryant with 24 at the break (6-for-8 from the field, 11-for-11 from the line).

At predicted, Utah goes through (sometimes extended) scoring droughts. That is a dangerous trend against the Lakers, who threaten to run out the lead every time it happens.

Fisher to Radmanovic on the break. Lakers, 51-34.

Kobe gets a quick five, then lobs to Gasol for a dunk. Lakers on roll, 41-28.

Three 3s for Vujacic, who was left alone in transition. Lakers, 34-26.

Lakers lead, 25-24, after 1. Utah's inability to guard Kobe is more glaring than against other teams.

Kobe a long 3. He now has 15 late in the first quarter.

Radmanovic is worthless and stealing his money from the Lakers.

Gasol picks up two fouls less than six minutes in, heads to the bench.

Kobe steals and dunks. Lakers on a 9-0 run to lead, 9-4.

Gasol opens on Boozer, who drives by for 2.

Celtics-Hawks -- Game 7 thread

2008-05-04T09:58:00.000-07:00

Boston's 34-point margin of victory is third highest in Game 7 history.

Hawks' 29.3 percent shooting is the third lowest in Game 7 history and lowest in the shot-clock era (since 1955).

Celtics win, 99-65.

Impressive performance by the Celtics, who clearly overwhelmed the Hawks from the opening tip. For Atlanta, it's one thing if you're not good enough, but not giving a supreme effort is embarrassing.

Boston's starters will take off the entire fourth quarter.

Celtics, 79-43, after 3.

Posey dunks on the break. Celtics, 79-41.

Allen and 1. Celtics, 70-34.

With the Celtics up 30, Garnett and Allen are diving on the floor for loose balls.

Garnett inside. Celtics, 60-30. Boston's reserves are standing.

Allen for 3. Celtics, 56-28.

Williams clotheslines Rondo on the break. It's a flagrant 2, automatic ejection. This play was somewhat similar to McHale's takedown of Rambis in Game 4 of the 1984 Finals. Williams never made a play on the ball, not a clean play.

Garnett again. Celtics, 51-28.

Pierce for 3 to open the third. Celtics, 47-26.

If maintained for a full game, Atlanta's 26.3 percent shooting would be the second lowest in Game 7 history.

Hawks' 10-point second quarter matches the record for fewest ever points in the second quarter of a Game 7 (1948 St. Louis Bombers vs. Philadelphia Warriors, which was pre-shot clock era).

Celtics lead at the half, 44-26. Hawks shooting 26 percent with 10 turnovers and just four free-throw attempts.

Is Josh Smith awake? He can't hang onto the ball, can't dribble, and just shot an airball.

Garnett inside. Celtics, 42-23.

Celtics very active on defense, taking away multiple options, lead, 40-23.

Garnett inside. Celtics, 36-20.

P.J. Brown with a block, Cassell with a steal, Brown with an offensive rebound. Celtics dominating in every phase. Boston, 34-18.

Cassell a short pull-up. Celtics, 30-16.

Pierce for 3. Celtics, 27-16, after 1. Hawks just shooting 26 percent. Celtics holding a 17-8 edge on the boards, and Perkins has eight points, six rebounds and two blocked shots.

Johnson hits back-to-back 3s, but Perkins is killing the Hawks inside with eight early points.

Hawks look tentative, nervous, overwhelmed, etc. They're 4-for-18 from the field, not decisive in their actions, and they aren't running either.

Allen on the break. Celtics, 20-10. Another standing ovation.

Celtics pounding the offensive glass with five already. Garnett follows Pierce's miss. Celtics, 16-8.

The Hawks missed one layup, but everything else in their 2-for-8 start has been from the perimeter. They have to get more aggressive.

Another offensive rebound for Boston, which leads 10-5. First standing ovation in Boston.

Celtics strong on the offensive glass with two putbacks. Celtics up, 6-3.

Johnson for 3 to open.

Ozzy's Crazy Train and Guns N' Roses' Welcome to the Jungle take us to tipoff.

I suppose this is somewhat obvious, but Atlanta really needs to withstand what should be a strong surge by the Celtics right out of the gate. The Hawks haven't been competitive in any of the three games in Boston in this series. A slow start would be another killer.

Hawks player introductions accompanied by Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. Can't recall that before, but it works.

Breen-Jackson-Van Gundy. This is going to be fun.

Hornets-Spurs -- Game 1 thread

2008-05-03T18:47:00.000-07:00

Big concerns for the Spurs:

* They have nobody who can guard West;

* Paul can take over whenever he decides it's time;

* The only offense the Spurs can get is 3-pointers.

Duncan just five points on 1-for-9 shooting, but even more notable is the paltry rebound total (three). I expect him to bounce back, but he looked very slow tonight.

Hornets win this one going away, 101-82.

Paul on the break, fouled. Hornets, 97-82. Paul rebounds his own missed free throw.

West from Paul on the break; 30 for West. Hornets, 96-82.

Paul drives for 2. Hornets, 92-80.

Finley for 3. Spurs within 8, 88-80, 5:11 to go. Basically, the Spurs are only getting 3s. They've cooled off considerably, and if they don't heat back up quickly, this game is over.

Duncan misses two at the line.

Wells again. Hornets, 88-77, 6:25 to go.

Lots of fouls at both ends right now. Duncan just gave up offensive rebounds to Ely and Wells. He looks even older than before.

Barry in for the Spurs.

Spurs have no answer for West, who has 28. Hornets, 80-71.

Finley for 3 to open the third. Spurs within 5, 74-69.

Hornets lead after three, 74-66.

Paul is taking over too, taking advantage of being in the bonus. He's attacking at every opportunity now. Hornets, 70-62.

Duncan looks old tonight. He has no lift on rebounds. His moves are indecisive and slow, and he's looking for fouls. Chandler and West have a huge edge inside.

Hornets outworking the Spurs now. Peterson chases down an offensive rebound, takes it beyond the arc and knocks down a 3. Hornets, 64-57.

Peja for 3, trailing the break. Hornets, 61-54 ... 13-0 run.

Spurs' offense is out of sync right now. Duncan can't get going because he's being doubled on every catch. The pick-and-roll game isn't producing any layins because the Hornets are clogging the lane and Chandler is lurking to block shots. The Spurs might need to try some clear-outs for Ginobili, or else the entire outcome will rest on their 3-point shooting. Brent Barry, anyone?

Paul steals, scores. Hornets, 58-54. New Orleans on a 10-0 run.

Peja over Bowen. Hornets, 56-54.

West dunks from Paul. Tie game, 54-all.

Spurs with four team fouls less than three minutes into the third. Bonus the rest of the quarter for New Orleans, 8:22.

Spurs with three team fouls less than two minutes into the third.

Spurs lead at the half, 49-45. Hornets have limited Duncan to three points on 1-for-6 shooting, but they've left the 3-point line open and the Spurs are 9-for-17 from 3. Paul, meanwhile, held to four points on 2-for-6.

Hack-a-Chandler: make, make.

Paul just picked up his third foul, 1:27 left before halftime.

Spurs just let Stojakovic inside for an offensive rebound tipin. Popovich calls timeout. Gotta love how Pop uses timeouts. Certain mistakes are just unacceptable.

Thomas wide-open on the perimeter. Spurs, 48-37.

Bowen for 3, and 1. Spurs, 44-35.

Finley for 3. Spurs, 40-35, 4:52 left in the second. Spurs 8-for-13 on 3s.

Bowen for 3, his fourth. Spurs, 37-35.

Stojakovic drives for two. Tie game, 33-all.

Stojakovic with four in a row. Hornets within 4, 31-27.

Parker teardrop. Spurs, 31-23.

Parker steals, scores. Spurs, 29-23.

19-minute delay. Popovich worried about how this will affect the Spurs.

In-game entertainment gone awry ... the Hornets' mascot trampolines through a ring of fire to dunk the ball. The fire, however, doesn't go out properly. Staff workers extinguish the fire, which of course, leaves a wet residue on the floor. Now, they're having trouble clearing it off the floor. The game is being delayed. It's the playoffs, people. Isn't that entertaining enough?

Bowen for 3. Spurs, 27-23, after 1. Spurs 6-for-10 on 3s, eight assists on nine field goals. Ginobili 11 points on 4-for-4 shooting (three 3s).

Wells on Ginobili.

Ginobili for 3. Spurs, 24-19.

Duncan from Ginobili. Spurs, 21-17.

Ginobili for 3. Spurs are getting lots of wide-open 3-point attempts due to all of the doubling on Duncan. Spurs are 4-for-7 from long distance so far. The Hornets' inability to defend Duncan 1-on-1 is why they won't win this series.

Ginobili for 3. Spurs, 16-15.

Oberto can't guard West. And 1. Hornets, 15-10.

Parker from Ginobili on the break. Tie game, 10-all.

Parker hits two at the line, ends 4:25 scoreless drought. Hornets, 8-2.

Stojakovic for 3 on the break. Hornets, 8-0. Breakdown by the Spurs defensively. They had Paul relatively contained on the break, but left Peja. That's what the Hornets love to do. Spurs open 0-for-4 from the field.

Chandler active early with four offensive rebounds, including a tipin. Hornets, 5-0.

Hornets doubling Duncan on the catch.

Chandler guarding Duncan. Bowen on Paul, Thomas on West.

Marv Albert and Reggie Miller. I'm going to take some Tylenol.

Lakers-Jazz -- Prediction

2008-05-03T18:32:00.000-07:00

The Jazz -- with their precision cutting and screening on offense, and their aggression and relentlessness on defense -- will give the Lakers more resistance in one quarter than the Nuggets did the entire first round.

That said, they'll need to. Los Angeles is dialed on offense and has numerous matchup advantages, most notably Kobe Bryant over anybody. Utah's biggest problem, however, is the occasional (and sometimes lengthy) droughts at the offensive end, especially against an outmanned Houston team.

If the Lakers are organized on defense and give maximum effort, that firepower edge will be significant.

Lakers in 5

2008 Celtics-Hawks = 1994 Sonics-Nuggets?

2008-05-03T13:43:00.000-07:00

For Celtics fans there are several ominous similarities between these two situations:

* The 2008 Celtics won 66 games, were No. 9 in offense and No. 1 in defense, had a point differential of +10.2, won their home games in the series by 23, 19 and 25 points, and they probably feel as though they let both Game 4 and Game 6 in Atlanta slip away.

* The 1994 Sonics won 63 games, were No. 2 in offense and No. 3 in defense, had a point differential of +9.0, won their home games in the series by 24 and 10 points, and they probably feel as though they let Game 4 in Denver slip away.

* The 2008 Hawks and 1994 Nuggets, both No. 8 seeds and huge underdogs, were young teams with very little playoff experience.

Here are some things the Celtics said after last night’s loss, which forced a winner-take-all series finale:

“Our confidence is definitely not shaken. It is what it is. We have a Game 7. And it’s what it is. We’ve got to win.” -- Kevin Garnett

“We put ourselves in this situation. For one of these teams, it’s going to be their last game. Just expect anything and everything.” -- James Posey

“It’s either win or go home. We’ve just got to go out there and get the job done.” -- Rajon Rondo

“We feel good at home all the time. That’s why we fought all year to get home-court advantage. As I said after Game 5, we can’t just hang our hat on being at home.” – Coach Doc Rivers

Here are some things the 1994 Sonics said after the Game 4 loss, which forced a winner-take-all series finale:

“They’re not playing like young fellas now. They’re just going for it. They’re a young team with nothing to lose. They now have confidence in what they’re doing. They feel comfortable with the matchups they have against us.” -- Nate McMillan

“We have our work cut out for us. We knew this would be a tough five-game series. This is just the beginning of a long process. The championship is still our goal. In Game 5, if we play serious basketball, we will find the answers.” -- Coach George Karl

“We did not want a fifth game, but now we have to go get it. A fifth game is always dangerous.” -- Detlef Schrempf

“When you let a team hang around and you are struggling to shoot, anything can happen. But Game 5 is what it’s all about, and it will be on our home court. We fought all season for that. We’ll need to use every edge we can get.” -- Shawn Kemp
Heading into Game 5 in Seattle, Denver’s Bryant Stith summed up what will also be Atlanta’s key against the Celtics:

“The first quarter will be very important for us. They’re going to be playing off a lot of emotion; the crowd’s really going to be into the game. What we have to do is stay within arm’s length, and if we can do that, put ourselves in a position to win the game in the last quarter, I think we have a very good chance to win.”

Just as Stith had hoped, the Nuggets stayed close, trailing 20-19 after the first quarter and 44-41 at halftime. The Sonics ripped off the first eight points of the third quarter to go up 11, but Denver responded and closed to within 62-60 with one quarter to go.

In order to pull off an upset of this magnitude, a team has to get huge contributions, some even from unlikely sources. Denver got them, and then some.

Robert Pack, undrafted and earlier called “turnover” by Sonics assistant coach Bob Kloppenburg, led all scorers with 23 points. He made three 3-pointers after halftime; he was 6-for-29 on 3s during the entire regular season.

Brian Williams, outcast by Orlando after two disappointing seasons, came off the bench for 17 points and 19 rebounds.

After the game, Karl summed it up: “They had a lot of guys who wanted to win the game. They had a lot of guys that wanted to take shots. We were tight and holding the ball. They were loose. They made some big-time shots under a lot of pressure.”

Will the Hawks come out loose with guys wanting to take and make big-time shots? Will the Celtics turn tight and hold the ball? There were some signs of both those things down the stretch in Game 6.

Boston’s best bet is to come hard and fast, hoping to bury Atlanta. If the Hawks stay close, we could witness another monumental upset.

Pistons-Magic -- Prediction

2008-05-03T10:35:00.000-07:00

Well, now that the Pistons are awake, this should be an easy series, right? Well, it would be if you actually believe that the Pistons will stay awake, sharp, focused, etc., for two consecutive weeks. In all likelihood, and if history has told us anything, they won't. This, of course, means that Orlando has a shot. In order to get it done, however, the Magic will need more 20-20s from Dwight Howard, scoring from Rashard Lewis against Tayshaun Prince, and some way to neutralize a huge disadvantage in the backcourt. In one big way, this series is on Jameer Nelson to outplay Chauncey Billups. Add it all up and a lot of things have to go Orlando's way to get four victories.

Pistons in 6

Jazz-Rockets -- Game 6 thread

2008-05-02T20:08:00.000-07:00

Jazz win, 113-91. They simply wore down the Rockets in the second half. Jazz will face the Lakers in Round 2.

Jazz extend to 85-65 after 3. McGrady scoreless in the third, 0-for-4 shooting.

Jazz open the third on a 19-5 run to regain control, 77-59. Williams has four 3s during the run. Alston, who sprained his ankle late in the second, won't return. Rockets' effort has been valiant, but they finally seem to be running out of steam.

Williams hits a 3 late in the second to give the Jazz a 58-54 lead at the break. McGrady has 28.

This is unreal. Rockets, down 19 earlier in the quarter, have come all the way back. They're beating the Jazz to the punch, diving on the floor for loose balls, pushing inside for offensive rebounds. Mutombo is blocking shots, etc.

McGrady is on fire: 24 of Houston's 41 so far. The Rockets are within 9, 50-41.

Korver for 3. Jazz, 46-27.

Williams to Harpring on the break. Jazz, 43-27.

Jazz open 6-0 in the second quarter, lead, 38-22.

Jazz lead, 32-22, after 1.

Jazz are active all over the floor, going for the knockout blow early. Utah up, 28-14, under 2 to go in the first quarter.

Celtics-Hawks -- Game 6 thread

2008-05-02T18:31:00.000-07:00

Hawks win, 103-100. Game 7 coming Sunday, which, of course, the Celtics will be favored to win, just as they have every game this series. But right now it's hard to imagine them winning a title with the Hawks so easily exposing so many weaknesses.

Rondo just delivered one of the worst end-game possessions in postseason history. Celtics need a 3 ... Rondo dribbles up the court, briefly looks around, never gets into a shot at the 3-point line, then airballs a long, long 3 from 29 feet. How do you not inbound to Allen? How does Rondo not get it to Allen?

Bibby at the line: miss, make. Hawks, 103-100.

Garnett a quick two. Celtics within 2, 102-100. 8.7 seconds.

Johnson at the line: make, make. Hawks, 102-98. 10.6 seconds left.

Allen's 3 for the lead misses. Strange strategy for the Celtics down the stretch. Why would the better team not want to play more basketball, even with one of its best players out? Why didn't Garnett command the ball and dominate, regardless of defense?

Johnson misses a tough runner.

Posey a long a 3-pointer. Celtics within 3, 100-98.

Johnson a huge 3, contested by Posey and against the shot clock. Hawks, 100-95. 1:06 left.

Allen misses three shots on a single possession. Perkins grabs another offensive board. Perkins at the line: make, make. Celtics within 2, 97-95.

Allen misses a contested 3. Bibby misses over Allen.

Allen fouls Bibby. Hawks attacking with Allen's man every trip. Bibby at the line: miss, make. Hawks, 97-93.

Since this game is running long, the Jazz-Rockets game will start on ESPN Classic. Kudos for ESPN for getting it.

Hawks' work isn't done. They have to stay aggressive.

Allen scores on a fastbreak drive. Celtics back within 3, 96-93. 2:46 left.

Childress all over the offensive glass.

Garnett finally ends the drought. Celtics down 5, 96-91.

Rondo misses everything on a drive, but at least he's eager to shoot. Where is Garnett? Where is Allen?

Another turnover by Garnett. Horford just outworked three Celtics for an offensive rebound. Pierce just picked up his sixth foul; he's gone. Pierce throws his headband -- technical foul. Childress scores, Johnson hits the technical free throw. Hawks, 96-89.

Hawks are active on defense now. The Celtics are rattled. Garnett doesn't want to shoot. Allen just hit the side of the backboard. And Rondo? These fake behind-the-back passes have to go.

Johnson, 1-on-1 with Allen, blows by, fouled. Johnson makes two at the line. Hawks, 93-89.

Horford makes two at the line. Hawks, 90-89.

Posey for 3. Celtics, 89-86.

Horford and 1. Hawks, 86-84.

Pierce answers from the perimeter. Celtics, 84-83.

Williams snatches Bibby's miss and puts it in. Hawks lead, 83-82.

Marvin Williams a nice drive off a scramble. Hawks within 1, 82-81.

By all key measures, the Celtics were the NBA's top defensive team during the regular season. That's not the team we're seeing in this series. Hawks are shooting 52 percent from the field tonight and are 25-for-32 at the line -- already.

Childress with a tipin at the buzzer. Hawks within 3, 82-79. One quarter left.

Childress dunks on the break. Hawks within 4, 79-75. 34.8 seconds left in the third.

Allen curls and hits a short jumper. Celtics, up 79-72, are playing solid offensive basketball.

Horford dunks. Hawks hanging around, within 5.

Celtics trap Johnson at midcourt. He hits Bibby, who knocks down a jumper.

Smith picks up his fourth foul, goes to the bench. More than seven minutes left in the third.

Celtics are trapping Johnson on every catch. They aren't going to let him beat them tonight.

Garnett a huge block on Smith.

Smith a huge block on Garnett.

Celtics open the third on a 9-2 run. They're controlling play and preventing the Hawks from running.

ABC/ESPN's No. 1 crew, Breen/Jackson/Van Gundy, are working this game. Pre-series odds of these three being in Boston or Atlanta for the first round: 1,000-1.

Celtics lead a close one at the half, 50-49. Joe Johnson has just two points on 1-for-7 shooting, but the Hawks are alive.

Cavs-Wizards -- Game 6 thread

2008-05-02T17:38:00.000-07:00

Cavs win, 105-88.

Wally goes for 26, Gibson for 22. They combine 10-for-19 on 3-pointers.

James out with 1:59 left. This one is over. A big triple-double for James: 27-13-13 in 44 minutes.

Wally on the break. Cavs, 102-79. 3:15 left.

Smith alone underneath from James. Cavs, 100-79.

Haywood is trash. Scouting report: Tends to foul -- a lot. End of scouting report.

Wally for 3 more. Cavs, 91-72. 22 points, 6 triples for Wally.

Ilgauskas down low. Cavs, 86-66.

Ilgauskas lob to James. Cavs, 84-66.

Butler is talking a lot for guy who is 2-for-9.

Wally for 3. Cavs, 82-64.

James takes a forearm to the mouth from Butler (not called), then a slash to arm (called). Butler then picks up a technical. James hits both free throws. Cavs, 79-64 after 3. James already has a triple-double: 18-10-10. I'd love it if James went the distance and destroyed the Wizards the rest of the way. Except for Jamison, Washington's roster is filled with punks. They need to go away.

Gibson a long 2. Cavs, 75-60. 2:02 left in the third.

James needs to put the hammer on this series right now. James rips Haywood, then follows with a block on Stevenson. Cavs, 71-58.

Two games going simultaneous tonight ... time to give the remote a workout.

News and notes

2008-05-01T21:48:00.000-07:00

* Take a look at the Suns roster. Now, name the one guy on that roster who has the length and foot speed to slow Tony Parker. No, it's not Boris Diaw. (I said foot speed). Give up? The answer is D.J. Strawberry, who made it to the NBA because of one skill: on-the-ball perimeter defense. I realize he only played 272 minutes his entire rookie season, but don't you think that as Parker went for 26, 32, 41 and 31 in the Spurs' four victories D'Antoni could have given Strawberry a shot? The results could not have been any worse. And at best, the teams might still be playing.

* The Sonics announced Thursday that P.J. Carlesimo would return as coach. I don't think P.J.'s the best coach in the world, but he isn't the worst either. And two years of coaching continuity can only help in Seattle, where just about everything else is uncertain and in disarray. This should be good for Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, really the only two players on the current roster that are part of the rebuilding process. I am curious, however, if this move is a signal that Clay Bennett believes his chances are slim of getting to Oklahoma City before the 2010-2011 season. I think Bennett loses the June court case, and if the city holds a firm "no" on his buyout proposal, the Sonics have two more lame-duck years in Seattle. Let Carlesimo, who has held a company political stance thus far, ride out these two years. With a better team, Bennett could then go high-profile for year one in OKC.

* The players acquired through mid-season trades might not be worse, but this Cavs team is worse than the unit that reached the NBA Finals last year. They aren't as tough or cohesive. Washington, their first-round opponent for third year in a row, meanwhile, is better. That combination is making for a tough series. Still, LeBron James is the by far the best player on the floor in this matchup and he HAS to get Cleveland through. This should be his MJ vs. the Cavs in 1989, although hopefully he doesn't need the final shot in the loser-go-home game.

Spurs-Hornets -- Prediction

2008-05-01T21:28:00.000-07:00

First off, the Hornets are good (I predicted them to beat the Mavs). They won't be intimidated and they'll play their game. But it won't be enough in this series. While the Suns gave them fits, the Spurs are perfectly positioned for this matchup. Paul got a free pass at the defensive end in the first round because Kidd has become such a non-factor. Parker, however, will make him expend a lot of energy on defense.

Stojakovic, meanwhile, gets 90 percent of his scoring off of Paul. Whether it's Bowen or Udoka or Finley, the Spurs are disciplined enough to never leave him. He's a relatively easy guy to take away.

The Hornets have nobody to defend Duncan. Chandler is better off the ball and would have a hard time staying out of foul trouble checking Duncan 1-on-1. West gives up too much size to Duncan.

And we haven't even mentioned Ginobili yet ...

Spurs in 5

Phoenix Suns -- What's next?

2008-04-30T20:50:00.000-07:00

Last year I wrote a story for MSNBC that analyzed style of play in the NBA, particularly the continuing shift toward a faster game. Given Phoenix's multi-year success and Golden State's upset of Dallas ... quicker tempo was the 'in' thing.

In 2008 the league-wide pace factor — an estimate of a team's number of possessions per game, or roughly how fast it plays — increased again to 92.4, the highest mark since 2000. And yet, for all of his success, Mike D'Antoni, the NBA's biggest proponent of fastbreak basketball and a savior of the game to many fans, likely will not return as coach of the Suns. In D'Antoni's four full seasons, the Suns won 62, 54, 51, and 55 games. They were eliminated in the playoffs three times by the Spurs, but also reached the Western Conference finals twice.

There was no history of success to support D'Antoni's approach, but he ignored it. The Suns ran and ran some more. They entertained. They won -- not a championship, but not too far off. To fire a coach with four consecutive 50-win seasons simply because he failed to reach the ultimate prize? That's one tough standard meet. Every team wants to win every year, but only one does. I'd like to think enjoying the journey would be better rewarded.

Legendary coach Chuck Daly, who won titles with the Pistons in 1989 and 1990 with a defense-tilted approach, told me the following during an interview for my story:

"Everybody wants to play like Phoenix, but you know what, there’s only one Steve Nash, and they built that team around him with all of those guys who can streak and shoot."

Read the second half of that quote carefully. "They built that team around him with all of those guys who can streak and shoot."

The Suns thought they could fit in Shaq, just one large piece to that puzzle, without upsetting the rest of it. And it didn't work. Because of Shaq, and the accompanying shift in mind-set to a post offense, those guys who could streak and shoot — Bell, Stoudemire, Barbosa, Marion (traded in the Shaq deal) — turned into guys who could (and did) stand and watch.

Nash, meanwhile, the motor, the trigger of everything that the Suns were about, was reduced to a post-feeder. And for all of Diaw's success on the block in Game 5, his Barkley-like pounding of the ball for 6, 7, 8 seconds time and time again, clearly and completely proved just how far the Suns had transformed. Who were these guys?

Phoenix now faces some tough decisions in the off-season. They have a roster full of players built to play the speed game, and one guy, who all by himself, brought those speed players to a halt. Shaq is 36 years old and has more than 37,000 minutes on his NBA body-clock. He also makes $20 million per year and has two years left on his contract, which means he is nearly impossible to trade.

Do the Suns build around Shaq and reshape the rest of the roster? If so, D'Antoni is probably not the right coach to oversee that.

Or do they release Shaq, absorb the $40 million as an ill-fated attempt at a title, and tinker the roster slightly to give the speed game another run? If this case, D'Antoni obviously is the guy.

Spurs-Suns -- Game 5 thread

2008-04-29T18:40:00.000-07:00

These teams are so evenly matched. But the Spurs -- against the Suns and everyone else, too -- make one or two more plays in one or two more games each series to get it done. A big part of this is because they are true to their system, to their roles, to who they are. Even though Nash tied the game at 85-all with a big 3-pointer, he followed it with two turnovers, and he was out of rhythm most of the night due to the over-abundance of Diaw on the block as well as the overall slowdown on offense ever since Shaq arrived. The Suns stopped playing to their strength: the break-neck running game.

Spurs, especially Parker, showing some extra emotion. This isn't a typical first-round series. These two teams are both championship caliber. The Spurs realize what a significant accomplishment this is.

Spurs win, 92-87.

Nash and Giricek miss 3-point attempts. Duncan at the line: miss, make. Spurs, 92-87. 2.3 seconds to go.

Ginobili fouled again: make, make. Spurs, 91-87. 23.1 seconds left.

Bowen knocks the ball off Nash on the inbounds play.

That miss by Ginobili, of course, changes everything. The Suns have tons of two-point options. Do they go to Diaw in the post, which has been successful tonight? Or do they keep the ball in the hands of their best player in Nash? Does Phoenix go for a 3?

Duncan inbounds to Ginobili, who is fouled by Bell. Ginobili to the line: make, miss. Spurs, 89-87. 25.7 seconds left.

Diaw over Ginobili in the post. Suns within 1, 88-87. 26.2 seconds to go. Not enough time for the Suns to play this straight-up. They'll have to foul.

Suns don't need a 3 here, but Nash loves to go for it in these situations.

Parker, using screen-roll, buries another jumper. Spurs, 88-85, 29.8 seconds left.

Diaw in the post, turnover.

Duncan misses a long jumper.

Nash turnover.

Nash turnover. Parker at the line: miss, make. Spurs, 86-85, 1:26 left.

Parker had a step to the hole, but Stoudemire came out of nowhere for an unbelievable block. Tremendous quickness off the floor by Stoudemire.

Nash for 3 to tie it. 85-all.

Parker a jumper. Spurs, 85-82.

Nash misses a tough, fallaway jumper.

Thomas at the line: make, make. Spurs, 83-82. 2:55 left.

Nash jumper on the run. Suns, 82-81. Huge shot by Nash, who was 2-for-12 prior to this one.

Shaq at the line again: make, miss. 9x20

Duncan a runner. Spurs, 81-79.

Shaq back at the line: miss, make. 8x18. Tie game, 79-all, 4:30 left.

Parker denied twice on drives, forced into missing a jumper.

Another Hack-a-Shaq. Shaq at the line: make, make. 7x16

Parker at the line: make, make. Spurs, 79-76. 4:59 to go.

Nash with a turnover and two misses coming out of the timeout. With all of his deferring earlier, Nash is not in rhythm.

Parker to Duncan. Spurs, 77-76. 6:43 to go. This final stretch is where the Spurs have been so tough during their three-titles-in-five-years run. Concentration and execution at both ends. Can the Suns toughen up and stave off elimination?

Parker fouled hard by Bell on the break. No flagrant. Good call. Parker splits 2. Spurs within 1, 74-73.

Parker to Duncan. Spurs within 2, 74-72.

The Suns completely collapse their entire defense every time Parker drives now. This is a complete switch from all earlier strategies this series. They're daring Parker to pass the ball to someone on the perimeter. But, with Finley 0-for-2 and Bowen 0-for-2, Parker isn't looking to give it up.

Diaw over Horry. Suns, 74-70.

Parker denied again, Duncan misses.

Diaw has drawn two more fouls in the post to start the fourth.

Parker forces his way to the hoop and is fouled. Parker makes 1 of 2. Suns, 72-71.

Parker drives again, forced baseline and around the basket. He's unable to get shots in the paint now.

Parker forced into a jumper, which misses. 1-for-4 this half.

Popovich just said he thinks Manu is playing too fast, trying way too hard, and that he needs to slow down.

Parker stopped on another drive -- turnover. Suns lead after 3, 72-69.

Ginobili and 1. Spurs with 2, 71-69. Maybe that will get him going.

Bell off a curl, unguarded. Suns, 69-64.

Diaw reverse dunk off a turnover by Oberto. Suns, 67-62.

Spurs don't have the spacing or the shooters on the floor right now to stretch Phoenix's defense. As a result, the Suns are able to sag in the paint and off the edges to help on Parker.

Bell for 3. Suns, 65-62.

Parker's drive clogged, denied again. Duncan rebounds his own miss, puts it back in. Tie game, 62-all.

Bell off glass. Suns, 62-60.

Udoka fouls Nash. Suns will get free throws the final 4:18 of the quarter. Nash makes 2 at the line. Tie game, 60-all.

Stoudemire filling the lane, and 1. Suns within 2, 60-58.

Parker's last few drives have been clogged nicely by the Suns, who have forced him to give up slow, hold up, then give up the ball.

Mellencamp's "Jack and Diane" just belted out while the ball was in play. Strange. Diaw dunks. Suns down 6, 60-54.

Diaw has drawn three fouls in the post this quarter. Still 9:20 to go. The penalty is looming early for the Spurs.

Bell for 3. Suns within 4, 54-50. Five straight for Phoenix to open the third.

Parker just passed up an open lane and/or jumper to pass to Thomas, who missed a jumper. No reason for Parker to give up the ball.

Diaw over Finley in the post.

Spurs: 9-2 edge in fastbreak points at the break.

Diaw is effective in the post tonight, but again, this post game isn't what the Phoenix Suns are all about. Nash, with just four points and zero assists on 2-for-8 shooting, is deferring too much. What is the Suns' identity? Adjustments are necessary, but changes in philosophy are difficult to implement mid-season, let alone mid-series. The Suns have tried both in 2008.

Parker and 1. Spurs, 54-45. San Antonio closes the second quarter on a 14-2 run over the final 4:31. Parker is the best player on the floor again: 20 points, five assists in 20 minutes.

Spurs cranking up the defense the final five minutes. Current run is 11-2. 20.9 seconds before halftime. San Antonio is holding for the final shot.

Oberto 2-for-2 at the line. Spurs, 51-45.

Hack-a-Shaq, Round 5. Shaq at the line: make, miss. 4x12

Hack-a-Shaq, Round 4. Shaq at the line: miss, make. 3x10

Ginobili picks up his third foul. Shaq at the line: miss, miss. 2x8

Udoka dribbles into a jumper. Spurs, 45-43.

Hack-a-Shaq, Round 3. Shaq at the line: miss, miss. 2x6

Udoka ties it with a 3. 43-all.

Diaw a long 2. Suns, 43-40.

Duncan, Ginobili and Parker each have two fouls with 4:47 to go before halftime. Ideally, Popovich would sit them to avoid a third foul for any of them. However, that's the Spurs entire offense. And they can't let the game get away from them.

Parker two free throws. Spurs back in front, 40-39.

Stoudemire steps in and takes a charge on Duncan, who picks up his second foul.

Shaq spins on Duncan and dunks. Suns, 39-36.

Barbosa corner 3. Suns grab their first lead, 36-34.

Stoudemire offensive rebound and 1. Suns within 1, 30-29. 7-0 run for Phoenix.

Spurs lead, 30-26, after 1. Parker with 13. Ginobili, meanwhile, didn't score and only played four minutes because he picked up two quick fouls. The Spurs will need him to find some rhythm while Parker gets a brief rest.

Diaw over Finley in the post. Suns within 4.

Horry for 3. Spurs, 30-22.

Hack-a-Skinner, Round 2. Skinner at the line: make, make. 3x4

Parker screen-roll once, regroups, screen-roll twice, teardrop. Spurs, 27-20.

Hack-a-Skinner, Round 1. Skinner at the line: make, miss. 1x2

Parker makes two at the line. Spurs, 25-19.

Hack-a-Shaq, Round 2. Shaq at the line: miss, make. 2x4

Duncan stripped, recovers, dunks. Spurs, 23-18.

Hack-a-Shaq, Round 1. Shaq at the line: miss, make. 1x2

Parker and 1. Spurs, 21-17.

Diaw over Finley again in the post. Suns within 3, 16-13.

Six in a row for Parker on drives. Duncan adds two free throws. Spurs, 16-11.

Diaw outside over Finley. 8-all.

Phoenix's bigger lineup with Diaw in has caused the Spurs some matchup problems at the defensive end. Finley winds up with Diaw in the post, which forces some soft doubles. Duncan just helped and gave up a bucket to Stoudemire. Diaw then scored over Finley.

Kurt Thomas rolls in a jumper. 4-0, Spurs.

Duncan drills a long jumper. 2-0, Spurs.

Duncan with a freshly shaved head. This is serious. It's close-out time.

Hornets-Mavs -- Game 5 thread

2008-04-29T17:33:00.001-07:00

If the Hornets indeed face the Spurs, they'll have a chance because of Paul. But their defense and depth will be tested: Paul guarding Parker; Chandler on Duncan. Those two especially will have to stay out of foul trouble.

Hornets advance, 99-94. Their stars were simply super once again: Paul with a triple-double (24 points, 11 rebounds, 15 assists), West with 25 points, Chandler with 13 rebounds (seven offensive) and three blocked shots.

Paul misses a jumper, but Chandler, the best offensive rebounder in the NBA, taps the ball back out. It winds up with Stojakovic, who is fouled with 5.7 seconds left. This one is finally over. Stojakovic hits two at the line. Hornets, 99-94, 5.7 seconds to go.

Hornets clearly thought their work was finished and now they're limping to the line again. 33.2 seconds to go. Mavs don't need to foul. Let's see how they play it.

Look out ... Devean George just hit another 3 to pull the Mavs to within 5, 97-92. 38.7 seconds left. Dallas ball, 4 on the shot clock. Nowitzki misses, but Bass rebounds and is fouled. He just barely misses an and 1. Bass at the line: make, make. Mavs within 3, 97-94. 33.2 seconds left.

Stackhouse, being a punk as usual, is ejected. Somewhere, somehow, Stackhouse and Carmelo Anthony deserve each other.

The Mavs have two nice pieces, starting with Nowitzki. But look at the overall: They start two older players in Kidd and Dampier who give them zero offense and really don't even need to be guarded. Stackhouse has developed Rolando Blackman disease (i.e., an overnight drop in production). Howard obviously can't be counted on when it matters. Other than Dirk, Bass is the only other piece that I'd set aside to build around. I'd clean house in every other room, including the coach's office.

Pargo reverse layup. Hornets up, 84-67, 7:00 left. Nowitzki just drove weak and was denied. This series is similar to last year's vs. Golden State. The Hornets, much like the Warriors in 2007, are younger, more athletic, and hungrier. And they established early on that if they kept the pressure on, attacked mismatches in the halfcourt, attacked on the break, and funneled the Mavs into shots they didn't want to take, they would win going away.

Wright hits two from the line. Hornets up, 82-67, 7:36 to go.

Pargo from Wright on the break. Hornets, 78-66. Timeout Dallas. 9:07 left.

Pargo a step-back 3. Hornets, 76-66. New Orleans is tentative again, though, getting bailed out by some tough shot-making against the clock.

Howard airball 3 to open the fourth. Paul answers with a long 2. Hornets, 73-63.

Howard is having another rough game, although 5-for-12 for 10 points through 3 might be his best game in the series. The guy averaged a career-high 19.9 on 45 percent shooting during the regular season. But those numbers were down to 12.8 and a dismal 26 percent through the first four games of the series. Quite simply, Howard is killing the Mavs, who have numerous problems, but this is the biggest. The way the team is constructed Howard has to hit his averages. They just don't have the other players to compensate when he doesn't.

Chandler, who stayed in the game with his four fouls, just blocked Stackhouse at the rim, then denied him again at the third-quarter buzzer. Hornets, 71-63, after 3.

West over Bass and 1. Hornets, 71-63.

Terry hits two at the line. Mavs within 5.

Bass draws a foul on Chandler, who just picked up his fourth. 57.5 seconds left in the third.

Brandon Bass! Completely outworked three Hornets underneath and dunked over the top of Chandler. Terry adds a dunk. Mavs within seven, 68-61.

Paul for 3. Hornets, 68-57.

Paul hits a tough 2 right at the shot-clock buzzer, but the Hornets will not be able to walk this one to the finish line.

Paul still not pushing the ball.

Nowitzki a long two. Mavs within six, 63-57.

Mavs have cut a 15-point deficit to eight early in the second half. Paul is not aggressive enough right now. Hornets, following Paul's lead, are tentative.

Lakers-Nuggets -- Game 4 thread

2008-04-28T20:09:00.000-07:00

Four-game sweep. Nuggets become first 50-win team to be swept in the first round. Great start to the postseason for the Lakers, who have the hunger and mind-set to take this all the way. It's highly unlikely that Bynum will return, but the Lakers appear to have enough talent to get it done.

Kobe 0-for-2 at the line. Lakers, 107-101. Final.

Kobe 2-for-2 at the line. Lakers, 107-101.

Nuggets in scramble mode for no reason. They aren't composed or organized, and had no clue about ball-time-situation there. Lakers go Kobe-Odom-Gasol, who dunks. Lakers, 105-101,

Camby for 3. Nuggets within 2, 103-101.

Bryant a runner off glass. Lakers, 103-98. 40.7 seconds to go.

Nene on a follow. Nuggets within 3, 101-98.

Bryant makes 1 of 2. Lakers, 101-96.

Anthony fouls Bryant 40 feet from the basket with 1:19 left. Anthony fouls out. A super-talented player who just doesn't get it. He has No. 1 option talent, but can't be trusted or counted upon to deliver. He isn't a leader and has no discipline.

Walton corner 3. Lakers, 100-96. 2:37 left.

Kobe deep 2. Lakers, 97-96.

Smith steal, layup, and 1. Nuggets lead, 96-95, 3:23 left.

Smith for 3 from 28 feet. Lakers, 95-93.

Kobe and 1. Lakers, 95-90.

Kobe for 3, after a ridiculous 2, fading against the shot clock. Lakers, 93-90.

Lakers are going to Gasol for isolations on the block -- not his strength. He's missed twice in a row. They need to get him on the move, cutting off the ball.

Odom and 1 on the block past Kleiza. Lakers, 88-85.

85-all. 6:30 to go.

Lakers lead after 3, 79-77.

Nuggets have come back from 10 down at the half to lead, 73-71.

DJ Mbenga just dunked Kobe's missed free throw. Lakers, 41-29. Apparently, it's difficult to focus on free-throw block-outs this time of year. Just another game for the Nuggets, right?

Lakers lead, 32-23, after 1. This quarter looks exactly like the rest of the series: Lakers move the ball, get good shots. Nuggets don't move the ball, end up with difficult shots. Unless the Lakers fall apart offensively or their top six guys go down injured, we're 36 minutes away from a sweep.

Magic advance

2008-04-28T19:59:00.000-07:00

Orlando's late run brushes aside Toronto as the Magic become the first team to advance in the 2008 playoffs. Howard was the difference in the series-clinching Game 5 as well as the series. He posted 21 points and 21 rebounds, his third 20-20 in five games.

Orlando's bench is thin, but its starting five is very good. The Magic will give either Detroit or Philadelphia a tough series, but staying out of foul trouble will be key.

Celtics-Hawks -- Game 4 thread

2008-04-28T19:26:00.000-07:00

Johnson (20 points) and Smith (12) combine for all of Atlanta's fourth-quarter points. Again, the Celtics can't match up with either player. And yet, Rivers kept Allen on Johnson and allowed isolations until it was too late.

Smith at the line: make, make. Hawks, 97-92. Final. Series tied, 2-2.

Posey buries another 3. Celtics within 3, 95-92. 4.3 seconds.

Johnson at the line: make, make. Hawks, 95-89.

Allen drives, dunks. Celtics within 4, 93-89. 18.7 seconds.

Pierce loses control of the ball, misses a layup. Smith, fouled on the rebound, now at the line: make, make. Hawks, 93-87, 26.2 seconds.

Johnson at the line: make, miss. Hawks, 91-87. 37 seconds.

Pierce and Garnett double Johnson again, who draws a foul on Pierce.

Pierce now on Johnson, who is doubled by Garnett. Childress pulls down an offense rebound on a 3-point miss by Smith.

Posey buries a long 3-pointer. Celtics within 3, 90-87.

Another Johnson vs. Allen isolation. Two more for Joe. Hawks, 90-84.

Garnett in the lane. Hawks, 88-84.

Johnson drives through the Celtics again. Hawks, 88-82, 2:15 left. Boston has allowed Johnson to break down Allen on isolations four consecutive possessions. The drives start from beyond the 3-point line, and help doesn't show until Johnson already has a head of steam. I'm surprised Rivers hasn't switched up this defense. Johnson has 15 in the quarter, 30 in the game.

Garnett rolls one home. Hawks, 86-82.

Smith just blocked Garnett, 1-on-1! Seven blocks for Smith.

Johnson drives for 2. Hawks, 86-80.

Johnson for 3. Hawks, 84-79, 4:33 left. The fourth-quarter-opening run is now 19-4 with Johnson (11) and Smith (8) combining for all 19 of the points.

Smith again from the outside. Hawks, 81-79.

Johnson ties it with a free throw. 79-all.

Boston's biggest weakness, a lack of athleticism, again is showing. Quite simply, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are the two best athletes on the floor, and they both play for the Hawks. These are nearly impossible isolation covers for the Celtics.

Trying to tie the series at two games apiece, the Hawks are making a run to open the fourth. The spurt is 13-4 right now. Celtics' lead down to 1, 79-78. 5:52 left.

Hornets-Mavs -- Game 3 thread

2008-04-27T19:23:00.000-07:00

Hornets in command, 3-1, and going home for Game 5. I think the crowd will be alive in New Orleans and spur the Hornets to a big win.

Final. Hornets, 97-84.

Starters on the bench, less than three minutes left.

Paul takes a long rebound on the run, pushes hard, and explodes into George. And 1. Hornets, 92-73.

Hornets are really difficult to rally against late in the game, because Paul won't give up the ball, can kill clock, and still get his team a good shot late.

Paul over the top. Hornets, 89-70, 5:19 to go.

Kidd's left hand caught Pargo around the neck on the break. Pargo went hard to the floor. Refs rule it a flagrant 2. Kidd (1-for-6 shooting, 3 assists in 28 minutes) is ejected, but this doesn't hurt the Mavs. Can Dallas go back in time and not pull the trigger on the Devin Harris trade? It was definitely a flagrant foul, but was less malicious than Stevenson on LeBron earlier.

Three straight for Julian Wright. Hornets, 86-70.

Stojakovic inside for 2. Hornets extend the lead to 15, 83-68, 8:30 to go.

Howard with an airball, now 3-for-15 from the floor. Dallas won't win tonight, or this series, if Howard can't score as his team's No. 2 option. Without Howard producing, the Mavs simply don't have enough offense to match the Hornets.

Down 10, Mavs open the fourth quarter for their most important game of the season with a shot-clock violation.

Hornets lead after 3, 76-66.

Paul in the lane for 2. Hornets, 74-65.

Terry and Nowitzki are carrying the Mavs right now, both in production and emotion.

Mavs starting a surge. Terry drives for 2, Nowitzki buries a long 3. Mavs within five, 68-63.

Stojakovic corner 3 ... splash. Hornets, 64-51.

Six in a row for David West. Hornets aren't getting much from Paul right now, but they're still extending the lead, 61-51.

Stojakovic for 3 ... nothing but net. Hornets, 53-46.

Paul swishes a 17-footer with 2 seconds to go in the half. Hornets lead at the break, 48-44.

On a court full of athletes, the explosiveness of Bass really stands out. Good time to mention that Bass was a second round draft pick in 2005. He is making $770,000 this year. Erick Dampier? $8.6 million.

Hornets on an 8-2 run. Two assists for Paul, two free throws and a jumper for Stojakovic. New Orleans, 46-40.

Paul back in, game tied, 38-all, 4:34 to go until halftime.

Hornets making a run with their bench: Pargo with seven and Julian Wright with 4. Hornets in front, 38-36.

Mavs, getting 12 from Jason Terry and huge lift off the bench from Brandon Bass (six points and relentless work on the offensive glass), lead after 1, 30-23.

The two biggest keys for New Orleans in this series -- Chris Paul controlling and creating at the offensive end, and Tyson Chandler on the floor for 40 minutes per game -- are not going well right now. Chandler picked up two quick fouls and managed only five minutes in the first quarter. Paul is 1-for-2 with three assists in 12 minutes.

T-Mac ... It is his fault

2008-04-27T18:18:00.000-07:00

Research in communication suggests that the actual words only contribute seven percent to an overall message, while the remaining 93 percent comes from nonverbal cues (e.g., posture, body movement, gestures, facial expressions, etc.). Consider this a loosely correlated extension of "Actions speak louder than words."

Houston's Tracy McGrady is one loss away from falling to 0-7 in playoff series. Earlier in the week, McGrady made a failed attempt at humor regarding his postseason failures, even stating that everything was his fault, including mistakes in concession beer orders at the Toyota Center.

One one hand, McGrady is correct. Last season against Utah was probably the only time that a McGrady team was favored to win a playoff series (and even that was nearly a coin flip). In this year's rematch, Yao Ming is out injured and Utah is better than a year ago. So, another loss is expected. And of course McGrady needs help.

Still, as one of the most talented basketball players on the planet, and one who earns better than $19 million annually, he needs to do his part -- and often more than that. McGrady tires in the fourth quarter, a fact that he has also admitted. He's scored 12 total points in four fourth quarters in this series and missed his first 11 fourth-quarter field goal attempts. McGrady has access to top-notch strength and conditioning coaches, yet he isn't in good enough shape to finish games strong?

But it's the actions, the nonverbal communications, that indict McGrady the most. It's his shrugged shoulders, pained expressions and passiveness. He appears disengaged, detached, arrogant and aloof. And so, when he fails, it's natural to draw conclusions that McGrady could do more. And for not doing everything that he can McGrady is at fault.

My take on McGrady's Game 7 loss to Utah last season

Saturday Night Light

2008-04-26T21:13:00.000-07:00

In case you missed it ...

* Denver is George Karl's fifth NBA coaching stop. And this stop is about ready to stop. Except for Seattle, which rebounded from some earlier monumental postseason failures to reach the NBA Finals in 1996 (Karl's fifth season there), Karl's trend is this: Infuse a team with energy and allowable freedom within the game early in his tenure, tear it down later with pettiness and lack of accountability. The Nuggets are a wreck. Anyone else want to see Allen Iverson paired with Larry Brown?

* It's hardly possible for Orlando to have paid more for Rashard Lewis, whose $15.6 million this season seems like a bargain by comparison (Lewis is on the books for nearly $24 million in 2013!) to what it will owe in future years. Lewis at least gave the Magic some return on investment in the team's biggest game in nearly a decade. In Game 4 against the Raptors, Lewis tallied 27 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. He made the back-breaking 3-pointer as well to seal things for Orlando, which is now up 3-1 in the series and on the verge of getting out of the first round for the first time since 1996 (six first-round exits in the past 11 years).

* The Celtics certainly aren't in trouble against the Hawks, but Atlanta's victory in Game 3 exposed some of Boston's weaknesses: lack of overall athleticism, Ray Allen's diminished game as strictly a jump shooter, inconsistent bench production. These soft spots could be better exposed in the Western Conference (one series would be a coin flip, but I'm not sure the Celtics could navigate three series against the West). Style-wise, most of the teams in the East don't have the personnel to hurt Boston.

Fighting the urge

2008-04-25T22:14:00.000-07:00

After the home team wins the first two games of a series, Game 3, especially between evenly matched foes, often goes to the team trailing 2-0. Why? Well, human nature is the biggest reason. Call it desperation vs. relaxation, two characteristics that are impossible to simulate (except maybe with the help of hypnosis or something else clinical; just a guess). They're either present of they're not. Coaches love to say, "Let's play like the series is even," even though it's 2-0. It sounds OK, but nobody is able to do it.

Usually it's tough to beat desperation, especially when that desperation is combined with the comfort of a home crowd and familiar surroundings. Thus far, Toronto, Dallas and Washington -- all fueled by desperation -- won easily in Game 3. Atlanta and Denver will attempt to get back into their respective series tomorrow.

What, however, happened to Phoenix? The Suns also began last night in the 0-2 hole and expected to begin the climb back. Instead, the Spurs led tip-to-buzzer, building a double-digit lead in the first quarter and coasting in the second half, easily dispatching the Suns, 115-99.

For San Antonio, winner of three of the past five NBA titles (roads dotted with impressive performances), this one just might have been the most impressive. The Spurs relentlessly abused the Suns and Shaquille O'Neal in the pick-and-roll game, precisely defended, most notably against Steve Nash (3-for-8 from the field, seven points, nine assists), never let up, and were perfectly unemotional, which helped negate some of the Suns' desperation.

Now, with a 3-0 choke-hold on the series, can the Spurs methodically do it one more time? Do the Suns have any fight left?

Jazz-Rockets -- Game 3 end

2008-04-24T22:25:00.000-07:00

Tremendous block in the closing seconds by Carl Landry on a short driving shot by Deron Williams, who was floating away from the defense. Landry's length, timing and closing ability were impressive. Landry then rebounded his block and saved the ball to Luis Scola to keep the Rockets from falling into an all-but-over 3-0 hole.

On live speed, it appeared Williams twice could have slipped the ball to Boozer inside.

Rockets win, 94-92.

Shaq deconstructed

2008-04-24T21:18:00.000-07:00

"Shaq is so bad at (defending) the two-man game. Teams don't run two-man games with him involved very often. You can get a jumper almost every time coming off the screen. Or, if Shaq comes out, you can go right by him. You can go right by him like he's not even there. I'm telling you right now, I'd like to coach one game in the NBA and I'd like to coach it against Shaq. I'd up-tempo the game, and if I didn't get a good opportunity, I would go into a two-man game every time using Shaq's man. I'm not talking about occasionally. I'm talking every time. I'd make him work his tail off every possession. I would do it all the time. (A team) would get whatever it wanted. It would be a joke. He would get in foul trouble. He would get tired and they couldn't defend it."

The above theory comes from Hall-of-Famer Rick Barry, who shared his thoughts with me on Shaq ... in 2006(!) as the Mavericks were relinquishing control of the NBA Finals that year, eventually losing to Shaq's (and Dwyane Wade's) Miami Heat. Barry's ideas, of course, aren't earth-shattering. Although, in typical Barry fashion, they are candid. The Mavericks, as you recall, lost four games in a row after being up 2-0. They didn't run enough pick-and-rolls -- despite guard Jason Terry's efficiency at, and favor for, running the play -- to make Shaq all that uncomfortable. Certainly not enough to expose the big fella's major weakness.

Why is this relevant? Well, fast-forward to the 2008 playoffs. The Suns made a bold move to acquire Shaq, hoping that his inside presence would be the missing link for a team so close to a championship. Shaq, of course, also brought with him limitations, most notably what Barry described above. At age 36 and a generously listed 325 pounds, Shaq doesn't have the lateral quickness or foot speed to show on a pick-and-roll, chase and/or re-route a guard, especially one as fleet as Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili.

It's already been established that the Spurs, led by coach Gregg Popovich, are the NBA's best at devising and carrying out strategies that give themselves the highest possible probabilities for success. It should come as no surprise then that San Antonio is precisely and ruthlessly wearing out the screen-and-roll. But the Spurs have taken it a step further. For the most part, they're not interested in open 17-footers from the initiator, or even pops and rolls from the screener. Their offense is all about getting Parker and Ginobili all the way to the rim -- to quote Barry, "every time."

This is the third time in the past four seasons that the Spurs and Suns have met in the playoffs. Including the first two games this year, they've played 13 postseason games. In those 13 games, two of Spurs' the three highest points-in-the-paint totals have come this season (72 in Game 1, 56 in Game 2).

Look for more, much more, of this offense the rest of the way, especially since this Shaq can only be found on film.

Steve Nash ... It's now time

2008-04-23T21:41:00.000-07:00

Lots of analysis swirling around the Spurs-Suns series, which is easily the most intriguing first-round matchup. Everything, it seems, is up for discussion: strategies, matchups, prior personnel moves, officiating, etc., etc. I've tackled some of these items already and will have much more to say as the series progresses.

A few things, however, are clear after two games:

* If the Suns indeed acquired Shaq primarily to improve their defense against Duncan and offer more interior resistance to the Spurs' drivers (Parker and Ginobili), they badly overestimated Shaq's abilities in those two areas.

* The things Shaq has provided -- rebounding and post scoring -- are offset by a change in culture to a post-first offense that has reduced the effectiveness of Bell and Barbosa, two key cogs who in the past have thrived in Phoenix's fastbreak style.

* The Suns miss Shawn Marion's versatility, primarily as an option to use his quickness, size and length to slow Parker.

* Every one of Phoenix's non-Amare-Stoudemire-rolls-to-the-basket possessions also should be initiated and dictated by Nash.

It isn't easy to fault Nash, who is averaging take-him-for-granted Nash numbers through two games: 24 points, 11.5 assists, 3 turnovers, 54 percent shooting from the field, for the Suns' 0-2 hole. It's more, however, than the numbers. The first half of Game 2 was pure Nash, who looked for his shot, kept his dribble alive, probed behind the basket, found teammates in their comfort areas. But for some reason, for much of the second half -- primarily during the Spurs' game-controlling 27-11 third quarter -- Nash deferred.

Throwing the ball into O'Neal in the post is wasting Nash and giving San Antonio a break. Throwing the ball into Diaw in the post on four key possessions? Not only is this also wasting Nash, it's inexcusable.

"I guess we had an offensive meltdown in the third quarter," said Nash. "It just wasn't a productive quarter. Offensively we lost our rhythm and that was pivotal."

Chances are Phoenix won't ever stop Parker and Ginobili from getting to the basket, but it's useless to spend time worrying about things that can't be changed at this point. What the Suns can change and should change is this: Nash now, Nash all the time.

Just prior to the playoffs, ESPN Classic aired Game 6 between Dallas and Phoenix from 2005. Nash, who had just been awarded his first of two MVP awards, posted a line of 39-9-12 as the Suns rallied to beat the Mavs in OT to wrap up the West semifinal series. In Game 5 Nash had 34-13-12. In Game 4 he scored 48 points. He averaged 45.3 minutes in those three games too.

I'm not sure Nash can physically do it anymore, but I'm certain the desire is there. Go ahead and run pick-and-rolls with Stoudemire. Push the ball on the break and in early offense to get Bell and Barbosa going. Wave away the screen and get by Parker in the lane, probe for cutters and 3-point spot-ups. Accept the switch, retreat, survey, and abuse the big man with lefty finishes and fadeaway jumpers.

Allow Nash -- the Suns' best player and best decision-maker -- to leave his stamp all over the remainder of the series. It might not change the outcome, but it is a basketball sin for a team to be eliminated without its best player having a 48-minute say in it.

Spurs-Suns -- Game 2 thread

2008-04-22T18:38:00.000-07:00

Spurs, 102-96. Final. Still a long way to go in this series, but:

* The Suns have held double-digit leads in the first half of both games, but lost both.
* When the Spurs get organized and crank up the defensive intensity, they dictate play at worst and dominate at best.
* Phoenix seems so concerned with getting Shaq involved (this is not Shaq circa 2000) that it's taking the ball out of its best player's (Nash) hands. How about not playing Shaq at all and playing Suns burn-it-up-the-floor basketball? The Suns believed that they were the better team in last year's series against the Spurs, that the suspensions robbed them. So, at what point did they determine they needed Shaq? At this point, I think what Shaq gives them doesn't make up for what they lose elsewhere with him on the floor.
* Barbosa and Bell combined 2-for-14 in Game 2.

Nash a runner of glass. Parker answers, 101-93. One minute.

Ginobili to Duncan for a wide-open dunk. Spurs, 99-91.

Diaw on the block again! Travel! This is a horrible offensive set. Why would you not want the ball in Nash's hands?

Duncan at the line with an opportunity to restore order a bit. 2:16 to go. Duncan misses, makes. Spurs, 97-91.

Nash fadeaway. Suns down 5. 2:35 to go.

Nash 2-for-2 at the line. Suns down 7.

Stoudemire taps in a Giricek miss, deficit now 9.

Suns within 11, 96-85. Spurs are stumbling to the finish here. Can they make it? The Suns have time for another push. 4 minutes to go.

Here's how much the Suns mind-set has changed. Not only are they not fast-breaking anymore, they're not running motion, and they aren't letting Nash create either. On four straight possessions, Nash threw 25-foot passes into Diaw against Ginobili in the post. Diaw then brought the offense to a halt by pounding, pounding, pounding the basketball. This is not "Seven seconds or less basketball."

Nash drains a wide-open 3-pointer. Suns back within 13, 94-81. Spurs now in the penalty with 6:22 to go.

Parker on a teardrop. Spurs, 90-73.

Oberto from Parker on another screen-and-roll. Spurs, 88-73, 9:38 left.

Bowen guarding Nash to start the fourth. Ginobili for 3, 84-73, Spurs. 11:19 left.

A huge Spurs third quarter is over. San Antonio up, 81-72. The Spurs' defense was top-notch and the difference, completely clogging Nash's penetration and dives by Stoudemire. Can the Suns adjust?

With the lead, Spurs are using the Hack-a-Shaq. But O'Neal hits 5 of 6 and is shaking his head. Doug Collins says that teams should not be able to foul off the ball in this manner, that these fouls should result in one free throw (anyone can shoot it) and possession of the ball.

Giricek in for the Suns. Good substitution by D'Antoni. Giricek is much more skilled at scoring in the halfcourt than Bell.

Six in a row for ... Ime Udoka. Spurs extend the lead to eight, 71-63. 17-2 burst to open the third quarter.

Nash fadeaway jumper, breaks Suns' scoreless stretch of more than six minutes. Spurs, 65-63.

Spurs' run now 11-0. They lead, 65-61.

Spurs' run now now 9-0. They lead, 63-61. Suns scoreless the first five minutes of the third quarter.

Spurs open the third quarter with a 7-0 run. Tie game, 61-all.

First-half fastbreak points: Spurs 18, Suns 2. Yes, that's correct. The acquisition of Shaq has completely changed the Suns' style. They don't run anymore. Whether or not they're a better team, well, we'll see. One thing, however, is certain: Failing to get out and run has diminished the play of Barbosa and Bell, two key cogs of the Suns of the past. Stoudemire, Shaq and Nash are the only Phoenix guys who get easy buckets out of the constant half-court sets. The rest of the guys, who thrived on running, have trouble getting anything in a slower game.

MAGIC-RAPTORS UPDATE: Strategy 101 from earlier. Down one with nine seconds to go, the Raptors inbound from midcourt. Calderon gets a screen from Bosh at the top and passes to Bosh, who attempts a deep 19-footer against a challenge from Howard. Not a high percentage shot. It misses. Chalk up that exchange of strategy and execution to the Magic -- and a 2-0 series lead.

Led by Stoudemire's 25, Suns are up seven, 61-54, at the break. Phoenix is shooting 61 percent with just four turnovers, and Stoudemire and Shaq only have one foul apiece. That's a good recipe for a victory. The Spurs, meanwhile, are scoring enough points, but this result won't change if they don't reign in Nash a bit.

Nash is more aggressive tonight: more ball-handling, more dribbling, more probing behind the basket. 10 points, eight assists and one turnover so far.

Stoudemire's skill-set is off the charts: quickness, agility, power, and now shooting range and touch. There isn't a comparable big man in the game. 20 points on 9-for-11 shooting.

Ginobili is on fire, 15 points on 6-for-9 shooting in 11 minutes! Spurs back within 4, 38-34. Suns answer with six straight, 44-34.

Spurs pushing the ball hard to try and get back into the game, covert three layups, close to within 31-21.

Nash to Bell for a wide-open 3-pointer. Phoenix rolling, 26-12, nine minutes in.

Shaq and Stoudemire both convert inside again. Suns up, 19-8. Phoenix's pick-and-roll defense is much better, sending the dribbler baseline.

Nash with a free-throw line jumper. Suns on an 8-0 run, lead 9-2. Ginobili in.

Shaq with two quick posts for three points, Stoudemire has four. Suns lead, 7-2.

Strategy: Does Nash have the desire and strength to be more aggressive on offense and frequently look for his shot? The Spurs wore out the pick-and-roll late in Game 1, involving Shaq as much as possible. Is there an answer for it?

Pre-game: Always interesting to see how teams, particularly those with several veterans, bounce back energy-wise from a grueling (both physically and emotionally) double-OT game. That classic had a late-series feel to it, but it was only Game 1. We've got a long way to go. For long stretches in the opener the Suns were the better team. Can they continue that again tonight?

Hornets-Mavs -- Game 2 thread

2008-04-22T16:15:00.000-07:00

Hornets win, 127-103. They're quicker and more assertive, and numerous players are getting whatever shots they want, whenever they want them. The last six quarters, during which New Orleans has scored 191 points (nearly 32 per quarter) have looked a lot like stretches of the GS series last year. The Mavs are offering no resistance ... to anything.

Kidd just let the ball roll before picking it up in order to save a few precious seconds. There are seven minutes remaining in the game, and the Mavs are down 19. They need more than time.

The only thing keeping me from throwing something at the TV is Bill Raftery. He should announce every game simultaneously.

Mavericks back within 16 with 10 to play. The game isn't over, except we aren't watching it. TNT has switched to the third quarter(!!!) of the Magic-Raptors game. Who is making the decisions back in Atlanta?

Another huge quarter for New Orleans, which leads by 20, 99-79, after 3. Hornets shooting 64 percent.

Peja again, Paul again. Hornets, 97-72.

The Mavericks, down 24, have this lineup on the floor right now: Brandon Bass, Jason Terry, Devean George, Malik Allen, Antoine Wright.

Peja swishes back-to-back 3-pointers. Hornets lead, 80-58. Best shooter in the NBA, best form, best release. Good thing someone changed his calendar. Peja thinks it's still the regular season. Shhh.

Chandler just picked up his third foul three minutes into the third quarter.

Avery Johnson's locker room huddle ended with "1-2-3, defense!" Let's see.

The Hornets are a very smart offensive team. It starts with Paul, but the entire team takes advantage of mismatches. When West is free on the block, they find him. When Peja runs to his spot-ups for 3s on the break, they find him. When it's time to push, they do. When it's time to pull it out, play 2-for-1, they do. New Orleans leads, 67-51, at the break, shooting 67 percent with 18 assists and three turnovers.

Teams treading water a bit. Hornets still up 10, less than two to go before halftime.

With Paul resting on the bench, the Mavs go zone. This is odd. Avery is saying here that the Mavs can't stop the Hornets even with Pargo running the show. They have to go gimmick. Peja hits a 3-pointer. Hornets, 45-33.

When teams try and take advantage of small guys in the post with non-post players, I wouldn't double right away. Make someone score the ball at least once. Case in point: The Mavs have posted Paul with Kidd, who isn't looking to score from the post at all, and Stackhouse, who hasn't attempted a shot from there either. Hornets are bailing them out by sending soft doubles, which are producing unnecessary open shots.

Another huge first quarter for the Hornets, who lead 39-29. Paul has six points on 3-for-3 shooting, eight assists and zero turnovers. New Orleans is shooting 71 percent.

Brandon Bass is now sprinting to double-team Paul, once just past midcourt, the other time in the backcourt. Paul is making all the correct reads, giving it up early, lobs to Chandler, finds to West for uncontested 17-footers. If there is a defense for Paul, who already has seven assists, the Mavs haven't found it yet. Hornets, 27-19, 2:51 left in the first.

Hornets lead 12-7, 4-plus minutes in. Very little has changed from Game 1. Paul is playing under control, and the Mavs haven't revealed anything yet that indicates a change in philosophy of defending him. Remember: After Paul, Tyson Chandler is the Hornets' most important player in this series. He's active early with six points and three rebounds and zero fouls. The Mavs won't win this series if Chandler is on the floor for 40 minutes a night.

The winning probability

2008-04-21T19:20:00.000-07:00

A lot of variables -- quality players, the health of those players, luck, the subjective eyes of referees, etc. -- go into determining who wins and loses playoff series, playoff games, and the final minutes and overtimes of those games.

How much do coaching strategy and players understanding that strategy contribute to the final outcome? Well, ultimately players have to convert, they have to make shots. The strategies? Those, at both ends of the court, are designed to maximize the probability that those shots indeed will be made.

Want to know why Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA? Because the Spurs carry out his late-game strategies and more often than any other team come up with a shot that, given the circumstances (i.e., an opponent that is trying to stop them), is the highest possible probability. On defense, the Spurs do whatever they can to make an opponent's shot the lowest possible probability.

Consider this scenario: Tie game, 15 seconds to go, teams coming out of a timeout. Team A is on offense and diagramming a play to get itself the best shot it can. Team B is on defense and devising a strategy to force Team A into the lowest-percentage shot possible. Hypothetically, in all of these situations, let's say Team A scores 35 percent of the time. When the ball is inbounded, players move into their sets. Eventually, when a shot is taken, we could take a snapshot of that moment: who is taking the shot, from which spot on the court, open or contested, etc. We would instantly know whether or not the probability of making the shot in that situation was greater or less than 35 percent. If it's greater, we could say Team A's strategy and execution won out. If it's less, we could say Team B's strategy and execution won out. This has nothing to do with the shot going in or not. That's up to the players. Hey, sometimes you make them. Sometimes you don't. But the goal of both teams should be to give themselves the best odds of being successful on that shot.

Let's take a look at the defining moments of the double-OT Game 1 between the Spurs and Suns. With the Spurs down three, trying to tie the game, they came out of a timeout and ran Michael Finley off a double screen along the baseline for a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer. Yes, Finley made the shot. But the Spurs perfectly executed the play they drew up. Finley is their best shooter for that play. They maximized the probability of converting in that situation. The Suns' defense, meanwhile, did nothing to run San Antonio off that shot. Leandro Barbosa trailed the screens the entire way. Amare Stoudemire didn't show to help. And the Suns didn't elect to foul either.

Now, with the game tied, the Suns had the opportunity to win, 15 seconds left. Steve Nash, with Bruce Bowen on him, dribbled the clock down, took a screen from Boris Diaw, but was partially cut off on a show by Fabricio Oberto, kicked it back to Barbosa, who was closed out by Tony Parker and forced to take a leaning, off-balance, contested 14-footer. There aren't too many shots in that situation that could have been worse for Phoenix. Regardless of whether or not it was poor Suns offense of great Spurs defense, San Antonio won that scenario, forcing the Suns into one of the lowest probability shots possible.

The offenses of both teams were sharp in the overtime, repeatedly getting high-percentage shots. Nash was more aggressive, didn't give up the ball easily or often (except for when he had Stoudemire for layups), and looked for his shot. The Spurs, meanwhile, ran screen-and-rolls with Parker and Duncan or Ginobili and Duncan nearly every possession.

Then, with three seconds left in overtime, tie game, Phoenix, once again had an opportunity to win. Their sideline out-of-bounds play from the frontcourt resulted in a direct pass to Diaw on the block extended, who first traveled (not called), then threw up an awkward, off-balance fadeaway that had almost no chance. If this indeed was the play Phoenix wanted, then Mike D'Antoni needs to be questioned. Three seconds is plenty of time for Nash to get something burning to the hoop and create space for a jumper. Anything but Diaw on the block that far from the basket. Once again, a very low percentage shot.

In the second overtime, again offensive execution was sharp. The Suns ran a great out-of-bounds play to get Nash free for the game-tying 3-pointer, but then poor defensive strategy hurt Phoenix one final time. The Spurs didn't call a timeout, instead electing to play on. Amid all the chaos, Ginobili got the ball in a 1-4 set, while the other four Spurs immediately positioned themselves around the perimeter. With the middle open, Ginobili began his dart about 45 feet from the basket. He drove hard left on Raja Bell and scored over the top. No help came, no double, no trap. The Spurs ran the highest-percentage play they could possibly run in that situation, and the Suns did nothing defensively to stop them from doing it.

Yes, the players have to make the shots. The strategies and executing the strategies, however, determine the probabilities whether or not those shots go in. More often than not the Spurs, at both ends of the floor, give themselves the best probabilities of converting. Are they perfect? Certainly not. But do they execute and play the probability game better than their opponents? Yes.

And this mind-set is a combination of getting the right players, who put in the work, understand the scouting reports as well as their own skills and abilities, and respect their coaches enough to do it. This starts in training camp, year after year. It cannot be flipped on like switch in April.

Once again, there are many variables that go into winning and losing games. This illustrates the part that coaching strategies and carrying out those strategies play in pushing single-play probability into or out of (albeit slightly, at times) a team's favor.

The Mavs and manhood

2008-04-21T08:00:00.000-07:00

Dirk Nowitzki’s manhood is being questioned -- again. The TNT crew took Nowitzki and the Mavericks to task for their response (or more accurately, lack thereof) to this: David West touching Nowitzki’s face as the two squared off after getting tangled up late in the fourth quarter of the Hornets’ come-from-behind victory in Game 1 on Saturday.

Kenny Smith said he would have pointed out what happened to one of his team’s enforcers -- notably, Otis Thorpe, who then would have taken care of the situation. Magic Johnson said there shouldn’t have been a need to point it out. Everybody saw what happened. The enforcers should have taken care of it themselves. Charles Barkley, not surprisingly, said that someone should have smacked West (i.e., let him drive to the hoop the next time down and hammer him).

It obviously would have been stupid for Nowitzki or anyone else to react with a punch that would have resulted in a suspension, but the TNT guys are right. You have to do something. Right then. Right there. Nowitzki, at the very least, should have slapped his hand away. Someone, anyone, on the Mavs should have rushed over and got in West’s face. It’s hard to imagine anyone else in the playoffs allowing this to happen, except maybe Tracy McGrady, but at least he would have been defended by a number of teammates.

Does the fact that none of the Mavericks defended Nowitzki say more about them and their toughness? Or does it say more about their feelings toward Nowitzki? I mean, it’s clear that this team isn’t loaded with toughness, as evidenced by how they wilted when the Hornets made their second-half surge. Jerry Stackhouse is probably their toughest guy. Where was he?

Last year Avery Johnson sent an ominous message to his team prior to the series with Golden State: Even though we won 67 games, we aren’t good enough to beat the No. 8 seed unless we make a lineup change. I don't think the outcome would have changed, but wow, if you just won 67 games, you do your thing and make the opponent adjust, right?

This year the ominous message came from the Hornets, courtesy of David West: We can out-physical you and impose our will on you and your best player, and not he nor anyone else on your team can or will do anything about it.

I'm curious if Dallas responds now simply because of the attention this incident has received, although it's usually easy to spot when someone soft is trying to act tough. I think the lack of immediate response speaks volumes.

The Mavericks, of course, certainly could win Game 2 and most of this could be forgotten. But it is a disturbing development. There are plenty of manhood situations in NBA playoff games (just watch underneath the basket on every possession in the Pistons-76ers series), and if one team won’t stand its ground, eventually it will get shoved out of the way -- literally and figuratively.

Dirk’s comments (Dallas Morning News)

UPDATE: Avery Johnson: "We need players to not back down from anybody," Johnson said. "That's what the playoffs are all about. More than Dirk doing something about it, I would have liked for somebody else on the team, preferably at the center position, to do something about it." Full report

Lakers-Nuggets -- Game 1 thread

2008-04-20T12:21:00.000-07:00

Lakers win , 128-114. Hard to believe they actually struggled for a portion of the first half. They carved up the Nuggets' porous defense. L.A had 33 assists on 46 baskets. Gasol finishes with 36 points, 16 rebounds and 8 assists.

Iverson was just ejected. Lakers up 118-107. This one's over.

Iverson running layup drills right now, three in a row. Nuggets close within nine, 114-105. Three minutes left.

J.R. Smith splits Bryant and Farmar on the break, and 1. Nuggets within 10, 101-91.

Gasol with two more dunks. He has 32. Lakers lead, 87-73.

Radmanovic hits a 3-pointer to give the Lakers their largest lead, 81-67.

Kobe with a long 2. Lakers lead, 73-60.

Kobe is 2-for-12 and the Lakers are up 7, 65-58. This shows just how deep they are.

As expected, L.A. adjusts and responds. Lakers back in front at the half, 58-56. Gasol has 18 points, seven rebounds and five assists.

The Lakers biggest concern in this series is here now: no defense. Right now they're playing less defense than the Nuggets, which didn't seem possible. Nuggets in rhythm, 47-40.

J.R. Smith explodes to the basket, and 1. Nuggets zone defense has troubled the Lakers, who look confused on offense. Nuggets, 41-33.

Kleiza buries back-to-back 3-pointers. Nuggets lead, 34-30.

Lakers lead, 26-22, after 1.

Fans just chanted "D-U-I" with Anthony at the foul line. Lame.

Gasol a short jumper. Lakers, 21-11.

Lakers ball movement is crisp early. Odom and Gasol both take extra passes and dunk. LA, 15-9.

Kobe guarding Iverson.

Mark Jackson just noted that this season was Kobe's best because he trusted his teammates. I hate this line of thinking. No, Kobe's teammates finally were good enough to trust. Would you have trusted Smush Parker or Kwame Brown? Me neither. It's far easier to trust players who have skills and abilities to help your team.

Magic-Raptors -- Game 1 thread

2008-04-20T09:35:00.000-07:00

Orlando wins, 114-100. A lot will be made of the fact that the Magic were so hot from 3-point range, which enabled them to build a big lead and coast for the most part. But they also worked through Howard, who had a monster game with 25-22 and five blocks. Toronto has no answer for this.

Magic comfortably in front again, 100-86.

Howard two more rebound follows. 25 points, 19 rebounds for Howard. After Raptors get within 5, Orlando responds with an 8-0 run to get it back to 13.

Turkoglu scores on the block and Howard gets a dunk. Magic back up by 9, 92-83.

Kapono again for 3. Raptors within 5, 88-83. 10 minutes left.

Toronto within 7, 78-71. Great back-door pass from Calderon.

Raptors hanging around, down 9, 78-69, 2:32 to go.

I'm shocked that Calderon isn't getting most of the minutes ahead of Ford at the point guard spot. The Raptors are much better with Calderon on the floor.

Charles Barkley said at halftime, "One thing about 3s, you can't make them all day." Taking that to heart, the Raptors open the second half in another zone. Orlando has cooled off. Bosh converts a 3-point play, taking the hit from Howard. Magic, 62-53.

Raptors get two more buckets and the Magic go scoreless the final four minutes of the second quarter. Magic, 60-47, at the break.

Kapono drills back-to-back 3-pointers. Raptors within 17, 60-43. 3:06 to go in the half.

Turkoglu just pump-faked a 3, crossed-over on his way to the rim and dunked. Bogans adds a long 3. Magic, 54-31.

Magic go 9-for-11 from 3, 16-for-20 (80 percent) overall, and lead, 43-23.

With his third 3-pointer, Evans makes it 32-17 with 3:49 to go. That's a lot of points.

Lewis takes Bosh off the dribble on consecutive trips. Magic, 29-17.

I'm a better shooter than T.J. Ford.

Another 3-pointer, this one from Maurice Evans. Magic, 25-14.

Magic make their first seven shots from the field, including four 3-pointers, and lead 18-8, four minutes in. Sam Mitchell, who has went both man-to-man and zone so far, looks confused.

The Raptors start Nesterovic and Bargnani. Can you win a playoff series like this?

Day 1 recap

2008-04-19T21:09:00.000-07:00

Cavs-Wizards: The intensity and hatred between these two teams means a great series is on the way. I still think this one goes 7, but LeBron is obviously the difference. Washington trapped off-and-on in the fourth quarter to get the ball out of LeBron's hands, but when the game was in doubt down the stretch twice LeBron started off the ball, got it late, then scored in the lane. The Wizards had no answer. They won't next time either.

Spurs-Suns: Wow. One of the better playoff games in recent history, and another long series in store. How much will this take out of either team? Hard to say, but my guess is that the Suns bounce back to win Game 2. A disturbing trend for Phoenix, however, is the number of layups the Spurs got after halftime. SA wore out the screen-and-roll game and took advantage of another lapse (either in strategy or execution) that bit the Suns again. One giveaway game is often too much to overcome.

Hornets-Mavs: I initially didn't think that the Mavs psyche would matter, but that second half meltdown -- lack of poise, searching for foul calls, lack of identity -- was there all over again. Much like the Cavs-Wizards series, Paul is the best player on the floor, and I don't know how the Mavs can prevent him from dominating and winning three more games in this series. And yes, Dallas would have a better chance at stopping Paul with Devin Harris, not Jason Kidd.

Jazz-Rockets: I picked this series in 5, but the Jazz should sweep. They're tougher, more organized and have better players. Without Yao, in particular, the Rockets just don't have the roster to be able to get this done.

And finally, let me shamelessly note that the four teams who won today are the four teams that I picked to win their respective series.

What a day. Back tomorrow.

Suns postgame reaction

2008-04-19T19:52:00.000-07:00

As expected, Mike D'Antoni is getting ripped for his late-game strategies, most notably for not fouling the Spurs at the end of regulation and the first overtime before the Spurs could attempt game-tying 3-pointers. One fan even said, "Where I'm an idiot happens."

Paul Coro, the excellent beat writer for The Arizona Republic, has already reported that the Suns should have switched onto Finley, who shook free from Leandro Barbosa by running the Suns guard through two screens. Coro notes that Stoudemire should have stepped out.

Regardless of whether it's ineffective strategy or failed execution, it's these kinds of lapses that have hurt the Suns in the past. It's one play here, one play there. It's only one game, but you never like to give away games that you a.) lead by 16; b.) lead late in regulation; c.) lead late in the first OT; and, d.) outplay your opponent.

As fans, we're the big winners here. This series is just getting started.

Stoudemire's comments

Jazz-Rockets -- Game 1 thread

2008-04-19T18:49:00.000-07:00

Utah wins, 93-82.

We've had a rather lengthy garbage/foul time here. Jazz up, 90-80, with one minute to go.

McGrady, guarded by Kirilenko, just pointed for the ball to go to the other side of the floor. He didn't want it. Just what you're looking for from your superstar.

Harpring just locked down on McGrady, twice stopping his drives, leading to a loose-ball foul. Kirilenko just rejected Scola with his left hand at the rim. I originally picked the Jazz in 5, but this is looking more and more like a sweep. I just don't see how the Rockets can keep up. The scenario tonight should repeat itself three more times.

Boozer just beat Mutombo to a missed free-throw offensive rebound. He lays it in and then adds a bucket off a feed from Williams. Utah, 79-64.

Williams buries a 3. Utah, 75-63.

Utah in control, wearing down the Rockets a bit, picking up some fouls. At the other end, the Jazz executed three shut-downs on one possessions (Williams denied Brooks on a drive, Kirilenko closed out Battier and chased him off a 3, and Harpring thwarted Landry on the block.

Jazz lead, 68-60, after 3, using an 11-3 run to close the quarter.

Korver, again for 3. Utah, 67-59.

Korver, I mean Ashton Kutcher, knocks down a long 3. Utah leads, 64-59.

Boozer picks up his fourth foul with 6:27 to go in the third and leaves the game.

Boozer answers with a jumper, layin on the break and a putback. Jazz back in front, 57-53.

McGrady gets two more inside, following his own miss. Scola chases down a loose ball. Rockets, with their bench up, leads, 53-51.

McGrady to Scola on the break. Tie game, 51-all, three minutes into the third quarter.

Battier for 3 from the corner. Rockets within 3, 49-46.

Kirilenko leads the way with 12 for Utah. Who saw that coming?

McGrady's late 3-pointer caps a 14-7 run to close the first half for the Rockets, who trail, 47-41.

Mehmet Okur on a drive is not a pretty sight.

I was surprised earlier this season, after Yao had already been shelved for the season, that several Chinese media members were continuing to follow the team. What I didn't realize, however, is that the Rockets have basically become China's NBA team. So, even though Yao is out, China is following Houston's journey. They know Battier, McGrady, Mutombo, Scola, Alston, etc.

McGrady fouled, drops to one knee, holds his left side. He's falling apart before our very eyes.

Another offensive rebound, another basket. 38-25, Jazz.

Jazz have 10 offensive rebounds so far, lead 34-22. Mutombo and Scola back into the game.

Jazz have eight offensive rebounds so far, lead 32-20.

McGrady sits down for the first time; Rockets down 28-20. Can they stay close?

Jazz asserting themselves now, lead 23-18 after 1.

I love the NBA commercials. The split screen of Shaq/Kobe talking at the same time? Pretty cool. The new Jordan commercial that ends with "excuses" is well-done too.

15-13, Jazz, 2:49 to go.

Millsap just rejected Mutombo from behind. I realize he's 41 years old, but is it possible to have a slower release and less lift on a shot than what Mutombo is pulling off. It's not he had smooth shot when he was a kid either.

McGrady's left shoulder is wrapped with padding. Less than three minutes in, he just grimaced for the first time. If you had less than three minutes if the office pool, you win. With Yao and Alston already out with injuries, this is not a good development for the Rockets.

Hornets-Mavs -- Game 1 thread

2008-04-19T16:00:00.000-07:00

It's hard to see these games going any differently, unless the Hornets core guys get in foul trouble. A trend early on the opening day: the better player beats the better players. LeBron and Paul were so dominant today that the better teams (Wizards, Mavs) couldn't do anything about it.

Hornets win, 104-92.

Stojakovic again with a game-sealing 3. Hornets, 101-86.

Paul again -- tough angle off glass. 33 points (15-for-23 from the floor), 10 assists, 4 steals, 1 turnover. I realize the Mavs had no idea what kind of first-round matchup they'd get two months ago, but they'd be much better off in this series with Devin Harris, whose quickness would give Paul more trouble than Kidd. JK has no chance.

Stojakovic swishes a 3-pointer. Hornets, 91-76.

Mavs currently 6-for-28 from the floor this half.

Paul no-look to West on the break. And 1. Nowitzki is looking for foul calls again. Hornets, 86-74.

Chandler with a rebound flush, Paul adds a free throw. Hornets up, 83-74, with 7:45 left.

File it away: New Orleans is so thin that it is absolutely vital that Chandler stays out of foul trouble. He's logging lots of floor time tonight. So far: 33 minutes, 1 foul.

Paul tosses an alley-oop to Chandler, then drops in a short shot of his own. Timeout Dallas, which now trails 80-74 with 9:22 to go.

Led by Paul's 15, Hornets (with zero turnovers) outscore Mavs 36-20 in the third quarter. Kidd's long two at the third quarter buzzer is reviewed and waved off. Hornets lead, 76-72, after 3.

Paul is more than making up for his lack of aggression in the first half. He is relentless here in the third quarter, putting major pressure on his defender every trip. Hornets, 72-68.

Paul splits two defenders on the break for a tough layup. Hornets lead, 70-68.

Wells knocks down a jumper. Tie game, 68-all.

Difference between Paul and Nash and someone like Kidd? On-ball defenders can go underneath every screen against Kidd because he isn't a threat to shoot even a wide-open jumper off the screen. There isn't even a need to switch on any screen-and-roll involving Kidd, who doesn't get many layups anymore either.

Paul gets a 2 in the lane, then explodes to the rim on the break for a layup and 1. Hornets within two, 65-63.

Chandler bodies up on Nowitzki, fouls him, pushes him to the floor, then picks up a technical. Dirk makes all three free throws. Mavs, 65-56.

Stojakovic is now 3-for-8 overall, including 2-for-6 on 3s. For his career, from the floor he's .458 regular season, .419 postseason; from 3, .405 regular season, .349 postseason. For a team that relies so heavily on its starters, Peja has to perform. He's playing soft.

Paul and West go back-to-back. Hornets within six, 54-48.

Stojakovic picks up his fourth foul 1:32 into the third. Not bright. Scott keeps him in the game.

Paul hits two buckets in a row. Hornets within eight, 52-44.

The Hornets open up the third quarter with an low-block isolation for Tyson Chandler, who has his shot rejected. Wonder if Bryon drew that up at halftime.

Kidd sets up Josh Howard for a 3-pointer with 1.4 seconds to go in the half. Mavs lead, 52-40, at the break.

Paul has not been aggressive at all and he's completely giving Kidd and the Mavs a free pass so far in this one. No way the Hornets win this game or the series if Paul isn't balls-out for 48 minutes a night.

Dampier dunks off a touch pass from Stackhouse. Mavs back up 10, 40-30.

Bass hits a turnaround on the block. He's 22 years old. All things considered -- age, ability, potential, salary, etc. -- after Nowitzki, Bass is the Mavs' most-sought player on the their roster.

Stojakovic knocks down a 3, his first, and the Hornets are catching up with Paul on the bench, something nobody thought could happen. Hornets within 3, 30-27.

Brandon Bass just had a monster dunk off a drive into the middle, two hands above the white square on the board. Wow.

Mavs, 26-19, after one quarter.

Paul just traveled (no call) on his home-run catch-and-shoot just prior to the first-quarter buzzer. Apparently the league office released its referee quotas for the opening weekend: lots of charge calls, lots of 3-second calls, no traveling calls.

With an aggressive drive, Nowitzki has now taken it hard to the hoop more in 12 minutes than he did in all of last year's first-round series against the Warriors.

Terry on a run-out. Mavs lead, 24-13.

Dallas has numerous mismatches, numerous options (Kidd in the post vs. Paul, Nowitzki in the pinch-post vs. West, Howard cutting against anyone) here early. The Hornets, meanwhile, are very tentative on offense -- and they're not running. NO must get out, run and shove the ball down the Mavs' throats.

Nowitzki's got two buckets, nine points total early. Mavs, 12-11.

Stojakovic, meanwhile, who is notorious for his playoff choke jobs, tossed up air balls on his first two 3-point attempts.

Nowitzki is silky smooth on two pinch-post jumpers. He's nearly unstoppable from there.

Spurs-Suns -- Game 1 thread

2008-04-19T12:23:00.001-07:00

Postgame thoughts: Suns, up 16 at one point, outplayed the Spurs and should have won. Then, even after San Antonio tied it up, Phoenix responded and could have avoided both overtimes had D'Antoni chosen to foul in those last-second situations. The Suns' interior defense was exploited time and time again during the comeback and overtimes. Phoenix doesn't run anymore, which means the Suns have to repeatedly score against the Spurs' halfcourt defense.

Nash's three-quarter-court heave is off. Spurs win, 117-115.

Spurs don't take a timeout, which prevents the Suns from making a substitution to get Shaq in for defense. Ginobili lets the clock wind down, drives to his left, scores on the layup with 1.8 seconds to go.

Bell inbounding to Diaw to Nash, 3-pointer ties it!!!

115-112, Spurs. Suns ball with 19.5 seconds to play. Let's see how the Spurs play this. Suns twice chose not to foul and it burned them. Spurs also have a foul to give.

Nash and Ginobili trade 3-point misses. Diaw misses a layup. Suns have to foul. Duncan inbounding, can't get it to Ginobili or Finley. Brent Barry to the line with 19.5 seconds to go. Misses first, makes second.

Ginobili scores on the blow-by past O'Neal, 114-112, Spurs. 1:07 left.

Ginobili's floater kisses the rim and in. 112-110, Spurs. Shaq flushes Nash's miss, 112-all.

Parker fouls out after hitting Nash on a 3-point attempt. Ball will be in Ginobili's hands the rest of the way. Nash hits 2 of 3. 110-110 all, 2:04 to go.

Spurs get three offensive rebounds. Duncan scores, 108-106, Spurs.

Hill inbounding, Diaw catches, travels (not called), and misses a fadeaway. Second OT coming.

Suns don't foul again!!!!! Calipari is in the building. Nash and Shaq both could have fouled Ginobili on the drive, but they Manu kick to Duncan, who ... makes his first 3-pointer of the season! Tie game, 104-104. 3 seconds left. This has to be Nash looking to shoot the potential game-winner. Let's see how the Spurs play it. Stoudemire fouled out earlier in OT.

Will the Suns foul this time?

Nash has come out aggressive in the OT, looking for his shot, which is what he should have done on the final possession of regulation. Nash to open the OT: jumper, assist to Stoudemire, jumper, 3-pointer. Suns up, 104-101, 12.6 seconds to go.

Bowen on Nash at the top of the circle, clock winding down. Diaw then comes up to set the screen, which forces a pass to Barbosa. The close-out forces Barbosa into a tough, off-balance shot just inside the free-throw line. It misses. Overtime.

Love that San Antonio is often using Rocky music during dramatic moments.

Phoenix elects not to foul and Finley ties it with a 3-pointer. 93-all. 15.1 seconds to go. Who's coaching the Suns, John Calipari?

Inexcusable for a shot-clock violation there with an opportunity to put the game away with a basket. That's entirely on Nash. He has to get them into their best offensive play and get a quality shot.

Shot-clock violation by Phoenix. Suns lead, 93-90 with 20.5 seconds to go.

Parker misses a jumper, Finley misses a 3.

Shaq stuffs Ginobili's drive, which leads to a Barbosa fastbreak bucket. Suns, 93-90, 1:10 left.

Stoudemire just tried to flush one, but was hit hard by Thomas. He powered it through and added the free throw. Suns, 91-90.

Nash 2-for-2 at the line. 88-88. 2 minutes left.

Duncan to a cutting Kurt Thomas for the Spurs first lead: 88-86.

Finley's 3-pointer ties it at 84-all. Just under 4 to play.

Nash answers with a fadeaway off the edge of the paint. Oberto, who committed a lane violation earlier, tries an entry pass to Duncan from a horrible angle that is easily picked off by Stoudemire. Think the Spurs would rather have Scola?

NBA teams on average score about one point per possession. So, the logic on long-term Hack-a-Shaq is this: If he makes 1 of 2 every trip to the line, the opposition won't make up any ground. If, of course, he misses both, it's a smart move.

Parker jumper has Spurs within 3 again. 82-79,

Oberto grabs Shaq in first attempt at Hack-a-Shaq, then again. Shaq to line. 0-for-2. Problem here, the Spurs just walked themselves right into the penalty, which means Nash and Stoudemire, etc., will also get free throws the rest of the way.

I can't remember a Game 1, maybe any game, that included more questioning and whining of so many calls. It's contagious.

Nash to Shaq on an alley-oop -- and 1. 3-point play, 82-76, Suns, 6:28 left.

Parker another layup. Parker then fouled on the break, makes 1 of 2. Spurs within 3, 79-76.

Duncan over Stoudemire on the block. Spurs within four, 77-73.

Suns up, 77-71, with 8:53 to go. Nash back in.

Spurs' non-Big 3: 5-for-18 from the field.

Another charge call. I grimace.

Stoudemire doesn't get enough credit for how skilled and forceful he is. He just put the ball on the floor, going left with his left hand and got fouled by Kurt Thomas.

Spurs open the fourth with ...? A gross defensive error. Jumper by Bell puts the Suns back up 8, 73-65.

Popovich's on-court interview heading into the fourth. His biggest concern: "Fewer gross defensive errors."

Parker struck for four field goals in the third and Ginobili added four. Both are getting to rim with relative ease. Suns lead, 71-65, after 3.

Stoudemire just picked up his fourth foul with 9.5 seconds to go in the third quarter. Suns up, 71-63.

Spurs have gone cold again. Suns up, 66-57.

I hate charges -- at all levels of basketball -- and there have been waaayyy too many called in this game. Choosing to stand stationary, with your hands at your sides, occupying a small area on the floor is not playing defense. Stealing the ball is playing defense, ball denial is playing defense, blocking a shot is playing defense. Standing somewhere, hoping someone runs into you? That's not playing defense. That's giving up. Ninety percent of charge calls should be play-ons. The other 10 percent should be blocks. There, I feel better.

In an effort to stop the Spurs' pick-and-roll game, the Suns go to a zone coming out of a timeout.

Stoudemire has really worked on his jump shot. He makes another one; he's now a reliable free throw shooter too.

Spurs are now forcing Shaq into guarding pick-and-rolls nearly every possession. In addition to Parker, Ginobili has also gotten into the lane for two layups early in the third quarter. Suns are better with Shaq on the bench.

It's raining in San Antonio. Another teardrop from Parker. Spurs down, 56-52.

Parker with a teardrop. Spurs within four, 50-46.

Duncan started the no-call complaining. Now everyone is doing it, including Nash.

Ginobili just 1-for-7, Parker 3-for-9 in the first 24 minutes. Spurs won't win this one, if these two don't get going. Shaq only played four minutes due to picking up three quick fouls. The growth of this Suns team is evident: Nash (5 points, 5 assists) no longer has to initiate the offense every possession.

Duncan finishes with 20 points and seven rebounds in the first half. Spurs trim the 16-point deficit in half, trail 48-40 at the break.

Barry just drained a 3-pointer. Spurs within 9, 45-36.

Brian Skinner just took a jump shot. This should never happen.

With the supporting cast giving them next to nothing, Spurs turn to Brent Barry to save them. Pop doesn't have a lot of other options. I think we can all agree that the Damon Stoudemire acquisition was a failure. Has anyone else mentioned this? Barry enters the game with San Antonio down 43-31, 2:50 left in the half.

Stoudemire free-throw line jumper on the break. Suns, 43-27. Spurs look old.

Diaw abuses Udoka in the post. Suns, 41-27.

Barbosa just burned Udoka on a cut to the basket and took a no-look over-the-head pass from Diaw for a 3-point play. Suns in control, 39-26.

Spurs biggest concern this series is being able to score enough points against a deeper team that has many more gifted offensive players. San Antonio's offense is not sharp.

Parker just fouled Barbosa shooting a 3-pointer, Ginobili just fouled Bell on the sideline. Spurs margin for error is much smaller than it used to be. Suns on 6-0 to open second quarter, lead 30-20.

Tracking down offensive rebounds, Suns outworking the Spurs right now. Diaw, on 3-for-4 shooting, has six points and looks sharp early. Good sign for Phoenix, which leads 24-20 after 1.

Ginobili goes underneath the screen and Nash makes the Spurs pay with an open-look 3-pointer. Suns lead, 20-16.

Spurs open the game 0-for-4 from the field with six turnovers in the first five minutes, but only trail 11-6. Somehow they manage to hang around, even when they are playing their worst.

Pre-game: I never thought I'd say this, but I think Gordon Giricek might be a difference-maker.

Cavs-Wizards -- Game 1 thread

2008-04-19T09:43:00.000-07:00

Cavs win, 93-86. Two evenly matched teams, outcome in doubt with two minutes to go. LeBron hit the two baskets to put Cleveland over the top. Look for several more games of this.

Cavs are going to win, up 91-84 with 15.1 seconds left. Winner of Game 1 goes on to win 79 percent of series.

Caron Butler misses a 3-pointer, Wizards now 3-for-19 from the field in the fourth quarter.

Chants of M-V-P, M-V-P in Cleveland, but LeBron misses two free throws that would have iced this one. Cavs, thanks to LeBron's NBA-leading 8.6 fourth-quarter scoring average, led the NBA with 27 come-from-behind wins in the fourth quarter this season.

Back-to-back LeBron runners, using an off-ball screen both times, to cut through the lane, taking passes from Daniel Gibson to finish strong. Cavs, 88-84 with 55.3 seconds to go.

Stevenson, 0-for-8 from the floor, finally connects on a 3-pointer. 82-82, 5:02 to go.

Wizards, down 77-73 with 7:24 left, are in the bonus the rest of the way.

LeBron back into the game, 9:04 to go. Tie game at 73. The Cavs would take this situation every game the entire playoffs.

With LeBron lying down on the floor on the sidelines to rest his back starting the fourth quarter (not a good sign), Gibson knocks down a 3 (a good sign). Cavs back in front, 73-70.

Cleveland's third-quarter-closing lineup: Delonte West, Devin Brown, Joe Smith, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson. This is not a playoff team. Wizards, 69-65, after 3.

Antawn Jamison just buried a 3-pointer and Arenas followed with a 2. 9-0 run for the Wizards, who have come back to lead, 65-61. LeBron had no field-goal attempts during the run.

ESPN analyst Rick Carlisle just said that this series is the most intriguing first-round series he's seen in 24-some years. Wow. The intensity and brewing hatred is making it better than otherwise, but c'mon Rick. Better than Spurs-Suns and Mavs-Hornets this year?

Three more dunks for LeBron, 11 points in the quarter, 23 in the game. Cavs, 59-54. Wonder if DeShawn Stevenson still thinks LeBron is overrated?

LeBron opens the third quarter with a layup, a free throw and a jumper. Cavs, 51-48.

Halftime, 46-46. First half of Game 1, early for the hatred to come out. Look out.

With 1.3 seconds to go in the first half, an offensive foul for an illegal screen is called on Brendan Haywood, who then briefly stands over LeBron as LeBron tries to get up. The two get tangled up and push away from each other. Other players rush in. Assistant coaches quickly turn to make sure bench players remain on the sidelines. Three technical fouls are called.

Delonte West just barely grazed iron on two consecutive jump shots. Wonder if Mike Brown drew up those plays.

LeBron just flushed an alley-oop pass from Daniel Gibson, a play that only LeBron could have made. Unreal. The pass was a bit errant and ended high in the middle of the lane. At full speed, LeBron rose up, cupped it back and threw it down with tremendous force. It appeared to even impress the man himself. I love this game. Wizards lead down to two, 40-38.

Arenas, who called himself an assassin and trouble, just buried two more 3-pointers. He has four triples already. Wizards lead, 30-19.

James, who played the entire first quarter, starts the second quarter on the bench. Cavs first two possessions were -- surprise! -- missed shots: a clear-out runner and 3-pointer from Devin Brown. Ugh. LeBron needs to play the entire game. Every game.

Arenas just buried a rhythm 3-pointer from the top about 10 feet beyond the line. Wizards lead 24-19 after one.

James responds with hard drives on the next two possessions, gets trips to the free-throw line.

LeBron James just got hammered in the face on a drive to the hoop. No call. Wizards score at the other end to grab their first lead, 19-17. A different Eddie Jordan is coaching this team. Washington is much more physical and much more determined to get the ball out of James' hands early.

Arenas shoots first air ball, 3:10 to go first quarter.

Gilbert Arenas comes in with 3:42 to go in the first quarter; Wizards trailing 15-12.

Great start to the NBA playoffs on ESPN, audio difficulties at opening tip. Might not be a bad thing, however. With eight series going, we've got JV C team broadcasting crews.

West First Round Predictions

2008-04-18T20:57:00.000-07:00

Lakers (1) vs. Nuggets (8)
Denver has the bold offensive-minded athletes and plays at a pace to give Los Angeles some trouble. Problem is, the Nuggets will give back almost all of the good work they do with lapses both in concentration and a commitment to defense. Since Pau Gasol arrived, the Lakers’ offense has found another gear. Ball movement is crisp and high percentage shots are now the norm. In an up-and-down series where fatigue likely be a factor as well, L.A.’s depth will play an important role too. Lakers in 5

Hornets (2) vs. Mavericks (7)
One of the best 2-7 matchups ever. After it briefly appeared that missing the playoffs was a possibility, Dallas asserted itself and posted three quality wins in the final week and a half. The “fragile” psyche of the Mavs, however, has been overblown and won’t be an issue. It’s popular opinion that the Hornets, with less playoff experience, will cave. I don’t buy it. With Chris Paul running the show, New Orleans — No. 8 in field-goal percentage, No. 3 from 3 and No. 3 in fewest turnovers — has a potent offense. And Louisiana fans will give them a boost in the finale. Hornets in 7

Spurs (3) vs. Suns (6)
The best first-round matchup ever. Worthy of a conference final. After having their seasons ended by the Spurs in 2005 and 2007, the Suns acquired Shaquille O’Neal specifically for this showdown. The trade, along with San Antonio’s weakened and injured supporting cast, has further narrowed the gap between these two. But now the Suns run less and that limits Leandro Barbosa, who is a difficult cover. Add it all up, is it enough to get Phoenix over the hump? Not quite. Tony Parker is playing better than ever and Manu Ginobili had his best season. San Antonio will rely on the Big 3 more than ever, but it’s the defense — No. 5 defending field goals, No. 3 on 3s — that once again will get it done. Barely. Spurs in 7

Jazz (4) vs. Rockets (5)
Rematch of last year’s first round series that was won by the Jazz — an introduction of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams to the mainstream hoop fan — on the road in Game 7. And that was with Yao Ming playing for Houston. Utah is better than a year ago, as evidenced by an efficient offense (No. 2 in field goal percentage, No. 2 in free throw attempts). Without Yao, the Rockets don’t have nearly enough offense. Expect Tracy McGrady to be frustrated in many of these games. It doesn’t take much, even under normal circumstances. Jazz in 5

Radio interview

2008-04-18T20:23:00.000-07:00

Talking NBA playoffs with Greg Pogue of WNSR (SportsRadio 560, Nashville, Tenn.)

Audio file

First-round series records by seed

2008-04-17T22:23:00.000-07:00

Since the NBA went to the 16-team playoff format in 1984 ...

No. 1 vs. No. 8: 45-3 (1994 Nuggets d. Sonics; 1999 Knicks d. Heat; 2008 Warriors d. Mavs)
No. 2 vs. No. 7: 44-4 (1987 Sonics d. Mavs; 1989 Warriors d. Jazz; 1991 Warriors d. Spurs; 1998 Knicks d. Heat)
No. 3 vs. No. 6: 34-14
No. 4 vs. No. 5: 23-25

So, the 7 and 8 seeds are a combined 7-89 in the first round, but Don Nelson-coached teams have three of those wins (89-91-08 Warriors).

East First Round Predictions

2008-04-17T22:15:00.000-07:00

Celtics (1) vs. Hawks (8)
This is a monumental mismatch: Boston is title worthy; Atlanta, well, most years they wouldn’t even be here. The Celts swept the season series, winning by an average of better than 14 points. Should be more of the same. The big three of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have combined to play in 121 career postseason games, none of which have come in the Finals. All three are older than 30, and Garnett (No. 2) and Allen (No. 10) rank in the top-10 among active players in career minutes played. Conserving energy (i.e., a sweep) would be a good thing. Worth noting, however, that since the NBA went to the best-of-7 first-round format in 2003 no eventual champion has swept its first-round series. Celtics in 4

Pistons (2) vs. 76ers (7)
Philadelphia was 18-30 on Feb. 4, before running off 22 wins in its next 30 games to secure a postseason spot. The 76ers, who then lost four in a row to close the season, shouldn’t pose much of a threat here. They don’t do anything dynamic enough to impress their will on the Pistons, who have their eyes set on the big prize. Detroit, No. 3 in field-goal defense, No. 2 in 3-point defense, and No. 1 in fewest turnovers, will put its foe into the meat-grinder. When the Pistons lose in the playoffs, except for 2005, it’s usually because they inexplicably stop playing the way they played all year. Then they blame Flip Saunders. Pistons in 5

Magic (3) vs. Raptors (6)
Consensus is that Orlando is a year or two of experience and a role player or two away from challenging Boston or Detroit. Still, this is the clear-cut No. 3 team in the conference, one that should be able to dispatch of an inferior foe. Dwight Howard’s only 22, but it’s time for him to go all-out for 48 minutes every night, shed the Superman dunk label, and become a consistent dominant force inside. He should own this series. Toronto’s best hope is for Chris Bosh to outplay Howard and for Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu — Orlando’s shaky perimeter scorers — to cave. Not impossible, but a lot to ask. Magic in 5

Cavaliers (4) vs. Wizards (5)
LeBron James is the only player in the league capable of winning a playoff series by himself, and that’s exactly what he’ll have to do. Cleveland’s un-supporting cast is in disarray. Last year the Cavs paired James with one of the league’s best defensive units, role players who did their parts and stepped up when called upon. The roster overhaul at the trade deadline looked OK on paper, but is simply a bunch of squeaky parts that don’t quite fit. Along with an improved Washington squad, all of this adds up to a Wizards’ victory, except for one huge problem … King James is too good and too willful in crunch time. Cavs in 7

Ginobili feature

2008-04-17T21:06:00.000-07:00

The San Antonio Spurs’ goal of an elusive repeat championship most likely will be determined by a player taken second-to-last in the 1999 NBA draft, someone whose on-court sanity has been questioned by his coach but who is also a favorite of both Kobe Bryant and TNT analyst Charles Barkley.

Yes, it should come as no surprise in the wildest season ever for the NBA’s Western Conference that Manu Ginobili, a player deemed crazy by teammate Tony Parker as well as Suns coach Mike D’Antoni, has played the best basketball of his life.

At age 30 and in his sixth NBA season, Ginobili has posted career-highs in points (19.5), minutes (31.1), rebounds (4.8), assists (4.5) and 3-point accuracy (40.1 percent), a number that has improved every season.

The rest of my story on Ginobili can be read on NBC Sports via MSNBC.com.

Don't go there

2008-04-16T22:11:00.000-07:00

After dropping a double-OT game at Seattle on April 6, the Nuggets -- with their playoff hopes in doubt -- were in somber moods. One night earlier they had flushed away a home game to the Kings.

Here's my audio clip from the postgame interview with Allen Iverson. A doozy of a question there at the end. No, I didn't ask it.

AI

Good thing Denver went 4-1 the rest of the way.

Homecourt advantage

2008-04-15T21:49:00.000-07:00

Unlike any other, this is a year where a 7 or an 8 could win in the first round and it wouldn’t be an upset, at least not in how we’ve traditionally defined the term. With quality teams so evenly matched in the West, seedings are essentially irrelevant ... except when it brings homecourt advantage too. During the past five postseasons, teams with homecourt advantage have won nearly 75 percent of the series (56-19).

Obviously, it’s a small sample size. So, there aren’t any conclusions to be drawn here. It’s worth noting, however, that only one eventual champion had homecourt throughout the playoffs (Spurs, 2003). The past four title winners were all forced to win at least one series that they started on the road.

Curious as to why SA pushed hard to get the No. 3? Yes, they drew the Suns in the first round. But Phoenix hasn't won a single road series in five years (0-2). Is this the year?

What do you think? Does this help anyone, in particular?

Playoff series records (2003-07)
West
Team, Overall, With H/C, Without H/C
Blazers ------ 0-1 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-1
Clippers ----- 1-1 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-1
Grizzlies ----- 0-3 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-3
Jazz ---------- 2-2 ----- 1-0 ----- 1-2
Kings -------- 2-4 ----- 2-0 ----- 0-4
Lakers ------- 4-4 ----- 1-1 ----- 3-3
Mavs --------- 6-5 ----- 5-2 ----- 1-3
Nuggets ----- 0-4 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-4
Rockets ----- 0-3 ----- 0-1 ----- 0-2
Sonics ------- 1-1 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-1
Spurs ------- 14-2 ---- 12-2 ----- 2-0
Suns ---------- 5-4 ----- 5-2 ----- 0-2
T'wolves ------ 2-2 ----- 2-2 ----- 0-0
Warriors ----- 1-1 ----- 0-0 ----- 1-1

East
Team, Overall, With H/C, Without H/C
Bucks ------- 0-3 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-3
Bulls --------- 1-3 ----- 1-1 ----- 0-2
Cavs -------- 4-2 ----- 3-0 ----- 1-2
Celtics ------ 1-3 ----- 0-1 ----- 1-2
Heat --------- 7-3 ----- 5-1 ----- 2-2
Hornets ----- 0-2 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-2
Magic ------- 0-2 ----- 0-0 ----- 0-2
Nets --------- 6-6 ----- 4-0 ----- 2-6
Pacers ------ 3-4 ----- 2-2 ----- 1-2
Pistons ----- 13-4 ---- 10-3 ---- 3-1
Raptors ----- 0-1 ----- 0-1 ----- 0-0
76ers -------- 1-2 ----- 1-0 ----- 0-2
Wizards ----- 1-3 ----- 0-0 ----- 1-3